Gold Pullback Brings Dip-Buying Window, Which Precious Metal Stocks Are Most Worth Watching?

TradingKey - Following a significant pullback in gold recently, market sentiment has shifted from previous unilateral chasing of gains to a re-evaluation of risks and opportunities. For investors, this round of adjustment is more than just a fluctuation in the gold price itself; it is a re-screening of precious metal assets. Identifying which miners can withstand price volatility and which can continuously amplify cash flows in a high gold price environment is becoming increasingly important.

In late March, spot gold once pulled back to around $4,400, a decline of over 17% from the periodic high of nearly $5,200 in February. Such a retracement is uncommon for recent years, but in the wake of this epic rally, it appears reasonable—after all, the surge in gold prices in 2025 was quite extreme.

Recently, the market has shown signs of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. On one hand, long-term support logic such as Middle East tensions, inflation, and fiscal deficits remains intact; on the other, a stronger US dollar and rising interest rate expectations are directly weighing on gold's valuation. Consequently, gold is no longer rising smoothly but has entered a more typical phase—volatility, repeated fluctuations, and continuous shakeouts.

However, because of this, the market's focus has begun to shift from chasing the gold rally to screening for resilience. This is precisely the starting point for divergence among mining stocks.

Why this round of correction is actually an opportunity

Looking only at the price, gold is indeed falling; however, if you break down the underlying logic, you'll find that things are not so simple.

On one hand, this decline is not a collapse in demand but rather a repricing of interest rate expectations. In other words, financial conditions are suppressing gold prices, rather than gold losing its allocation value. On the other hand, even with the pullback, gold prices remain in a historical high range—this is critical for mining companies.

The profitability of mining companies does not depend on whether "gold prices have risen," but on the "spread between the current gold price and costs." In a gold price environment above $4,000, profit margins for most leading miners remain very substantial.

In other words: gold prices are adjusting, but the cash flows of mining companies are not necessarily deteriorating in sync.

This presents a classic opportunity—when the market sells off mining stocks due to short-term sentiment, it may instead provide a better entry point for medium- to long-term capital.

Core Asset Comparison: AEM and NEM are More Like Core Holdings

If you are looking for relatively stable targets in this round of correction, Agnico Eagle ( AEM) and Newmont ( NEM) are excellent choices.

Let's first look at Newmont. As one of the world's largest gold producers, it delivered a very solid performance in 2025: annual revenue reached $22.67 billion, gold sales increased by 23% year-on-year, and production approached 5.9 million ounces, while beating market expectations for the fifth consecutive quarter.

More importantly, during this cycle of high gold prices, the company has significantly strengthened its balance sheet—reducing debt, increasing dividends, and enhancing cash flow—all of which indicate its improved ability to withstand cycles.

Agnico Eagle's logic is more geared toward "growth + stability." Its characteristics within the industry include high project quality, relatively excellent cost control, and continuous production expansion. Compared to companies that rely on a single mine, AEM's operational structure is more balanced, which is crucial in volatile markets.

Simply put, these two companies are like this: when gold prices rise, they won't miss out; when gold prices fall, they don't easily lag behind.

Optionality and Elasticity: Barrick's (B) "Copper + Gold" Dual Logic

Barrick ( B) is a typical "leveraged high-quality asset."

According to its financial reports, its 2025 revenue reached $16.96 billion, with operating cash flow of $7.69 billion and free cash flow of $3.87 billion, representing significant year-on-year growth.

At the same time, the company increased dividends, repurchased shares, and proposed future IPOs for certain assets to unlock value.

However, Barrick differs from pure-play gold companies in one aspect: it simultaneously bets on copper.

This is a "double-edged sword" in the current environment. On one hand, copper represents stronger cyclical elasticity; once the global economy or new energy investment recovers, it will have additional upside potential. On the other hand, it also means the company is more sensitive to macro fluctuations.

In summary: Barrick is not the most stable, but it could be the most explosive during a rebound.

The Silver Chain: PAAS is Stable, AG is More "Aggressive"

If we broaden the perspective slightly from gold to silver, the differences between PAAS and AG become very apparent.

Pan American Silver ( PAAS) has gradually transformed from a "pure silver mining company" into a "silver + gold combination" over recent years, with a noticeable improvement in cash flow stability. In a high gold price environment, its profitability is actually undervalued.

While First Majestic ( AG) is in a completely different style. It acts more like an amplifier of market sentiment—when silver prices rise, it surges more sharply; when silver prices fall, it is more easily sold off.

The difference between the two is essentially this: PAAS is suitable for medium- to long-term allocation, while AG is suitable for short-term swing trading.

Small-Cap Play: Opportunities and Risks Coexist for FSM

Fortuna Mining ( FSM) belongs to the typical "small and elastic" category of assets.

From the data, its operating cash flow and free cash flow both grew in 2025, but the issue lies in the ongoing pressure on the cost side, with AISC levels remaining high. This means that if gold prices continue to fluctuate, its profit elasticity will be magnified—but the direction is uncertain.

In other words, its logic is not about certainty, but about the odds. It is suitable for capital willing to take on volatility to bet on a recovery phase.

Market Changes Underway: From Storytelling to Cash Flow

This round of gold adjustment is actually quietly changing one thing—capital preferences.

During the uptrend, the market was more willing to pay for "future growth"; however, once it enters a volatile phase, everyone cares more about reality: Who is making money? Whose costs are low? Who can pay dividends?

This is why some mining stocks continue to fall even though gold prices remain high. This is not due to deteriorating fundamentals, but rather a re-prioritization by the market.

Overall, this adjustment in gold appears to be a cooling off, but from another perspective, it is pulling the market back from emotion to rationality.

Gold prices are no longer rising across the board, and mining stocks are no longer moving in lockstep; divergence is starting to emerge. In this environment, it becomes easier to find truly valuable targets.