六旗娛樂 (FUN) 2026年第三季法說會：EBITDA成長，第四季展望疲軟

六旗娛樂 (NYSE: FUN) 在其規模最大的季度公布了溫和的同園區成長，但由於 10 月入園人次疲軟，促使管理層下修第四季調整後 EBITDA 預測。該公司同時強調了安全審查、成本節省、投資組合最佳化以及減債措施。

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季同園區淨營收成長 1.4% 至 11.7 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 1.1% 至 4.932 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 42%，下滑 13 個基點。
• 總入園人次大致持平於 1,820 萬人次，但由於六旗減少發放免費門票，付費入園人次有所增加。人均消費成長 1.3%。
• 今年前九個月，同園區調整後 EBITDA 成長約 11% 至 6.395 億美元，利潤率擴大約 200 個基點至 28.3%。
• 前九個月公布的自由現金流達 2.57 億美元，較去年同期增加約 3 億美元，主因營運現金流增加且資本支出下降。
• 受不利天候、喬治亞六旗樂園（Six Flags Over Georgia）致命事故以及相關遊樂設施關閉影響，10 月入園人次下滑 9%。管理層預期第四季同園區調整後 EBITDA 約為 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元，相較於去年同期的 1.669 億美元。
• 六旗本季結束時擁有 10.6 億美元的流動資金。淨負債約為 47 億美元，淨槓桿比率從 6.1 倍改善至 5.8 倍。

核心財務數據

該筆 6.88 億美元的減損與商譽、商標名稱及長期資產相關。管理層表示該筆費用為非現金性質，並未影響流動資金。

業務與營運表現

季票與會員持有者約占第三季入園人次的 61%。截至 9 月底，有效季票客群較去年同期成長約 7%，而跨園區遊覽人次約為去年同期的五倍。

管理層表示，公司正優先考量總營收與遊客終身價值，而非僅關注單次入園消費。區域季票與會員制正鼓勵遊客造訪多個園區，而新的行銷基礎設施則旨在支援更具針對性的獲客與顧客留存。

遊樂設施正常運作率從 89.4% 提升至 90.3%，每位遊客搭乘設施次數增加近 3%。六旗正將更多成長型資本配置於提升遊客體驗的項目，包括舒適度、便利設施、活動及娛樂項目。

第三季節省成本總計約 1,300 萬美元，主要來自人力、營運成本和採購。這些節省抵銷了工資、保險及其他通膨帶來的約 3,000 萬美元壓力。今年迄今的總節省額達到約 6,300 萬美元，扣除成本壓力後約為 3,600 萬美元。

該公司在年內減債 2.75 億美元。其債務中約 70% 為固定利率，管理層表示近期沒有即將到期的債務。

管理層財測指引

六旗預期 2026 年第四季同園區調整後 EBITDA 約為 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元，相較於 2025 年第四季的 1.669 億美元。管理層將預期下滑的大部分原因歸咎於 10 月，而 10 月通常貢獻第四季營收的 60% 至 65%。

儘管第四季面臨逆風，管理層仍預期全年同園區調整後 EBITDA 將較 2025 年成長。該公司亦預期全年總計可節省 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元成本，扣除成本壓力後相當於 3,600 萬至 4,600 萬美元。

長期而言，管理層持續以 30% 中段的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率及約 4 倍的淨槓桿比率為目標，但未提供具體時間表。管理層認為成本措施可貢獻所需利潤率提升幅度的大約一半，其餘則由營收成長帶動。

該公司可能在 1 月支付約 3.7 億美元，以收購喬治亞六旗樂園剩餘的合夥人權益單位。管理層表示，若有需要，現有流動資金應足以全額支付，不過部分合夥人可能會展期其持份單位，從而減少現金需求。

風險與關注焦點

一名遊客於 10 月 12 日在喬治亞六旗樂園不幸身亡。地方當局與設施製造商正在進行調查，而六旗亦正展開內部審查。該公司在獨立工程與檢驗專家的協助下，亦已針對旗下所有園區展開全面安全審查。

管理層表示，該起事故及相關遊樂設施關閉造成了 10 月入園人次 9% 跌幅中的約一半，惡劣天候則造成了另一半。最直接的業務影響集中在喬治亞六旗樂園、魔術山六旗樂園（Six Flags Magic Mountain）以及數座暫時關閉招牌設施的園區。

天候仍是營運波動的主要來源。第三季受到美東與中西部的不利天候，以及數個園區遭受野火煙霾影響。10 月初的重要營運週末亦受到惡劣氣候干擾。

槓桿比率仍高於管理層的長期目標。喬治亞合夥人權益的潛在收購款項可能會增加循環信貸的使用量，儘管公司表示其流動資金情境已假定全額支付該款項。

分析師問答重點

• 投資組合最佳化：管理層證實，目前正就出售其他非核心資產進行討論。管理層並未明確說明目標園區數量。所得款項預計將主要用於減債。
• 潛在槓桿影響：管理層表示，未來交易可能對槓桿產生更顯著的影響，因為各別園區可能適用不同的估值倍數。目前尚未公布任何交易。
• 資本配置：包含維護、安全與防護在內的基礎設施支出，通常占總資本支出的 20% 至 30%。成長型項目必須達到回報門檻，而延期的項目則保留在長期規劃儲備中。
• 2027 年商業機會：管理層指出了 Fast Lane 產品與重組餐飲方案中的定價機會。在回報足以支撐支出的情況下，公司亦計劃擴大活動與娛樂項目。
• 季票銷售：2027 年季票的推出刻意延後，以減少遊客購買一張季票即可享受兩個營運季部分時間的情況。管理層預期在新年之前，有效季票與會員基數將持平至小幅成長。
• 資產出售最新進展：馬里蘭州資產出售目標仍為 2027 年底，具體取決於買方的開發許可審批流程。六旗正在評估里奇蒙資產的競價方案。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us on Six Flags Entertainment's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Tom Hennessy, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to point everyone to our third quarter 2026 earnings release and supplemental presentation, which were released this morning. Both can be found in the Investors section of the Six Flags website at www.sixflag.com. Some of our comments will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

Forward-looking statements, which are usually identified by the use of words such as will, expect, should or other similar phrases are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. We refer you to our SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial condition.

During the call, we will discuss our non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for our financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is available in our third quarter 2026 earnings release and our supplemental information. One additional point on the basis of comparisons made in our materials issued today and on this call, we will refer to our results on a same-park basis, which excludes the 7 parks sold on April 6, 2026, and the Park in Boe, Maryland that closed after the 2025 season from all periods presented.

Unless we say otherwise, year-over-year comparisons today are on that same park basis. Joining me today are John Reilly, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ash Walia, Chief Financial Officer, who will take you through our prepared remarks. We will then open the call to questions. With that, I will turn the call over to John.

John Reilly

Thank you, Tom. Good morning, everyone. Before we discuss the quarter, let me start by acknowledging recent events. On October 12, Hasan Kareem tragedy lost his life while visiting Six Flags over Georgia. On behalf of every one in 6 Six Flags, I extend our deepest condolences to his family and friends.

Our thoughts are also with those who are injured and everyone affected, including our team members. This tragic incident, together with our decision to retire the X2 roller coaster at Six Flags Magic Mountain, has raised understandable questions. Those questions is there clear answers.

Nothing is more important to this company or to me than the safety of our guests and of our team members. Safety is the most fundamental commitment we make. And to that end, every ride we operate is inspected daily before opening and maintain to comply with our internal and regulatory requirements, so that we meet or exceed industry safety guidelines.

Here is what we know today and what we are doing. First, local authorities in the ride manufacturer are investigating what happened in Georgia. We are assisting fully in conducting our own internal review. We cannot comment further until that investigation is complete.

Second, we have launched a comprehensive safety review of our entire ride portfolio, led by Mark Pauls, our Chief Operating Officer, supported and verified by independent third-party engineering and inspection specialists. We will provide further updates as appropriate.

Confidence isn't restored with a statement. It is earned through action, and our leadership team is committed to earning it. Every guest and team member deserves to feel safe in our parks, and that is the standard we hold ourselves to at every park, every day.

Now let me turn to the business through 3 lenses: our team, our strategy and the results we are delivering. Having spent most of my career leading and operating many parks and resorts across many countries, when at the opportunity to come to Six Flag late last year, I saw this as the greatest opportunity imaginable in this industry.

Great brands and amazing parks with real scale and high barriers to entry. I also knew many of the people who worked in these parks. They are dedicated results-oriented people who know this business. Yes, the company was underperforming but I could also see the potential of what it could be.

After 11 months, this company is further along than it was a year ago, and the numbers show it. Through 9 months, adjusted EBITDA is up nearly 11%. Margin is up about 200 basis points and free cash flow has improved by about $300 million. I am more convinced now than ever of this company's potential.

On our last call, we shared our operating priorities with you. With the season now mostly behind us, we have a fuller picture of how our parks are performing and where the opportunities lie.

We are executing a strategy that we believe will drive this company to reach its potential. And while still, we are already seeing the results that Telesis strategy is working and this team is headed in the right direction. It all starts with the brand, and our brand research consistently comes back strong.

Awareness of 6 lines is 96%. And in nearly every market where we operate, we are the #1 name in our category. The research also tells us that our stand-alone park brands, together with some attribution to the fix-line name are stronger together than either one alone.

Great brands still need great operators. We put experienced park presidents back in charge of our largest parks with clear ownership of the guest experience labor, ride up time and the park level P&L. We are bringing back decision-making authority in an entrepreneurial spirit to the parks. I am confident from my years in this business that it will pay off. centrally, we have the right leaders to scale our resources, build centers of excellence and support the parks as they grow.

Mark Hall, who joined as Chief Operating Officer in July has visited most of our parks and is leading a part-by-part review of uptime maintenance, staffing and operating procedures.

Amy Martin Zingenfus, our Chief Marketing Officer, is sharpening how we win and keep guests cutting back. Chris Myring, our SVP Commercial is leading our pricing and revenue management work to optimize our opportunities. And DASH has brought the investment and cost discipline he will walk you through shortly.

Our teams in the park and our park support center know how to lead through good plans and challenging ones. Progress will not always be a straight line, but we're building this team the right way. Doing right by our guests and team members and delivering value for shareholders are not competing goals, we will do both.

Let me turn from who we are to what we are doing. It starts with the 4 priorities we laid out on our last call. Park level accountability, a better guest experience, stronger commercial capabilities, disciplined capital allocation. We have made steady progress getting the basics right.

Building on them is the next phase, and that is where our strategy comes in. Our ambition is to build the premier regional parks entertainment platform, connected networks of parts that deliver experiences guests love to share and a loyal recurring member and pass holder base that creates sustainable value for our shareholders.

We are focused on 5 key elements that drive it, and I'll give you a proof point for each. First, build fun experiences that gets love, talk about and share. It starts with rides that are safe and run when guests expect them. Ride availability is the biggest driver of how guests feel about their day, and it's improving.

In the third quarter, write-up time was 90.3%, up from 89.4% last year. Guests are also riding more with rides per guest up nearly 3%. Around the rides, we are improving attractions, events, comfort and service. because happy guests return and bring new ones.

More of our growth spending is going exactly there; two, expand the pass holder network and base. The base is growing. At the end of September, our asset pace was up about 7% versus the same date last year.

And pack holders and members made up about 61% of our attendance in the quarter. Our regional passes and memberships are doing what we've built them to do. Guests are traveling further and expanding our catchment areas, visiting more than one park. Cross park visits are running about 5x last year's love. That is the network working, and we are just getting started.

Brands that have never been available together on one pass, but being comparable combination of not BerryParm and Fixing Mountain in -- great Los Angeles are now available together in the same regional markets. We see an opportunity to lean in based on our success this year, including with paid marketing support; three, optimize the portfolio through a disciplined investment strategy.

Our parts do not all play the same role or contribute to growth at the same level. So we do not invest in them in the same way. Every park has a plan built around its own market and its own growth opportunity. where a park is strong, we build on it. Where there is more room to grow, we start by getting the fundamentals right.

We put our capital to its best and highest use and safety and maintenance come first. We carry more debt than we want and bringing it down as a priority.

Optimizing the portfolio is how we will get there. We are actively reviewing our parks in real estate, including potential sales of noncore assets, to unlock value, reduce debt and enhance liquidity.

That also keeps us investing in the parts that drive our business. The 7 noncore parts we sold this year show how we think about it. We act when the value is right. Every dollar has to help us get there as we build for our future.

Four, execute with excellence. That means marketing to find the right guest at the right time, pricing that reflects the value we provide and operations that run with consistency from park to park. We are adding new capabilities behind strengthening our marketing and pricing and that work is well underway.

Over time, our guests will see more personal, better targeted messaging and a stronger connection with us. It also opens up new ways to sell.

Five, build a performance culture. Our Park leaders own their results. They make decisions closer to the guests, and they carry the accountability that comes with it. We are also making this company faster and simpler.

Centrally, some decisions look longer than they should have with too many layers between the people closest to the guests and the people making the call. Consolidating our corporate offices is one example. Fewer layers means faster decisions, more accountability, and more local ownership. Shared services gives the part of the strength of scale they could never build alone.

We are seeing early results. Taken all together, these 5 strategic pillars are intended to drive the outcomes that matter. Recurring revenue, a growing and more loyal pass holder base, higher guest lifetime value margin expansion, stronger free cash flow and lower leverage.

Our long-term goals are adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-30s and net leverage of about 4x. How are we doing? The evidence is early, but is moving in the right direction. Start with the quarter. Third quarter is our biggest of the year, but it was not the easiest.

The later Labor Day gave us more operating days but a less favorable July 4th calendar and wildfire smoke at a handful of parks took much of that back. Even so, on a same-park basis, net revenues grew 1.4% and to $1.17 billion, adjusted EBITDA grew 1.1% to $493 million, and we held our margin at 42%. Per capita spending rose and paid attendance grew as we issued fewer complementary tickets. Progress rarely shows up in a straight line, and the start of the fourth quarter tested us.

October is the most important month of the quarter, and it was softer than we planned. Weather hit several of our biggest early October weekends and events and the ride closures that followed the incident in Georgia landed in the same weeks.

Through 9 months, we've seen real proof points that our strategy is taking hold, including an increased pass base, materially higher crop park visitation fuels our gold path and the new brand combinations available to each region, an increase in adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion. That's momentum that reinforces confidence we're on the right track, and we intend to build on it.

That is our strategy and where we're headed, and we're energized by what's ahead. As will take you through the financial details, including our outlook for the fourth quarter. I'll be back at the end with some closing comments. With that, I'll hand the call over to Ash.

Ashok Walia

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Before I walk through the numbers, I want to give you 3 takeaways upfront because they frame everything else, I will say this morning. First, we delivered a solid third quarter in our largest and most important quarter of the year, on a same-park basis, we grew both revenue and adjusted EBITDA and held our margin at 42% even with a less favorable July 4 calendar and with weather and [indiscernible] weighing on several of our parks during peak season.

Second, our year-to-date results show improving profitability and cash flow versus prior year. Through the first 9 months on a same-park basis, adjusted EBITDA is up about 11%, and our margin has expanded by about 200 basis points.

As a result, for the 9 months, our cash flow from operations less CapEx is $257 million, a $300 million improvement from the same period last year. Third, we have the balance sheet flexibility to meet our commitments and continue investing in the business.

That takes into account our fourth quarter outlook and the seasonality of our business through the winter and early spring when liquidity is at its lowest. We ended the quarter with more than $1 billion of liquidity and an improvement of $298 million versus this time last year, with nothing drawn on our revolver.

We believe that gives us ample capacity to meet our obligations, including to fund the full Six Flags over Georgia purchase, if needed in January. Now let me walk through the details, starting with our reported results. Third quarter net revenues were $1.17 billion.

Net loss was $366 million or $3.59 per diluted share, which includes noncash impairment charge of $688 million related to goodwill, trade names and long-lived assets. The details will be included in our quarterly 10-Q filing.

The charges do not affect our cash position and are excluded from our same-park adjusted EBITDA. Unless otherwise noted, the majority of my comments from here on will be on a same-park basis, which excludes the park we sold during the second quarter and our buoy park that closed after the 2025 season.

Please keep that in mind as I referenced year-over-year changes throughout my remarks. Further, I'd point out that our earnings release also has the reported results and reconciliation to the same park results as well as a detail of quarterly historical same part results and drivers to assist you in your modeling.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $493.2 million, up $5.4 million or 1.1% as we held our margin at 42%, down 13 basis points versus last year. The quality of our attendance improved as we issued fewer complementary tickets. Total attendance was $18.2 million, essentially flat with last year.

The later Labor Day help this quarter, while weather in the Northeast and Midwest plus wildfire scope as several parks weighed on peak weeks during the quarter. Our guests also spend more per visit. Per capita spending rose about 1.3% to $6.51 with increases in both admissions and in-park spending.

Key drivers included higher merchandise spending and spending on premium offerings such as [indiscernible] On the cost side, our savings kept pace with inflation which is what protected our margins. In the third quarter, we delivered about $13 million of savings, mainly from full-time seasonal labor, at operating costs and procurement.

That fully offset about $30 million of cost pressures from wages, insurance and other inflation. We did this while operating 54 more days than last year, mainly from the shift in Labor Day. Zooming out to the first 9 months, the improvement in our profitability and margin is clear. Revenue grew about $62 million. Adjusted EBITDA also grew about $62 million or 11% to $639.5 million.

Essentially, every dollar of our revenue growth reached the bottom line, and our margin expanded about 200 basis points from 26.3% to 28.3%. On a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted EBITDA rose to $806 million. Cost savings have been a major driver Year-to-date, we have delivered about $63 million of gross savings or about $36 million net of cost pressures, and we are on track for $70 million to $80 million of gross savings for the full year or $36 million to $46 million net.

These savings are not a onetime benefit. They are a part of how we run the business every day, and we are building a pipeline of savings for the years ahead. so that more of the revenue growth, which is the bottom line.

That keeps us on path to achieve adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-30s over time. Just as important, our earnings are converting into cash flow. On a reported basis, through the first 9 months, operating cash flow was $498 million, up $133 million from last year, reflecting stronger business performance as the remaining park and favorable working capital.

Capital spending was $241 million compared to $408 million last year, and free cash flow was $257 million. This marks an improvement in free cash flow of about $300 million through the first 9 months compared to last year.

These figures are as reported so last year and the first month of this year include the parks we no longer operate. The reduction in CapEx reflects a more rigorous approach to capital allocation, not a change in our growth strategy.

After funding infrastructure, including maintenance, every project now competes for funding on its expected return on invested capital, and we have resequenced our pipeline so that the highest return investments come first.

The projects we've moved haven't been abandoned. They remain in our long-range plan and will be reevaluated against the same return thresholds in future years. As you will observe, when you visit our parks, a growing share of our growth capital is going towards guest experience investments, which we believe offer attractive returns and support our strategy to rebuild attendance.

We don't expect to see sequencing to change our path to adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-30s over time. On the contrary, our sharpened focus around capital allocation strengthens free cash flow and liquidity. The cash generation has strengthened our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $1.06 billion of liquidity, up $223 million from $837 million at the end of second quarter.

That is comprised of $268 million of cash and revolver available. This represents an improvement of $298 million in our liquidity compared to the same time last year. We are also delevering. We have reduced debt by $275 million this year. Net debt fell by about $200 million in the quarter to approximately $4.7 billion, and the net leverage improved to 5.8x from 6.1x based on a trailing 12-month same part adjusted EBITDA.

About 70% of the debt is fixed rate, and we have no immediate maturities. We remain focused on reducing net leverage, targeting a goal of about 4x. We expect any proceeds from asset sales will go to paying down debt. On insurance, the higher cost to the third quarter reflects the structure of our insurance program our claims experience and our actuarial estimate of claims that have occurred but not yet been reported, all related to the period before the incident in October.

We self-insure claims up to a certain retention level Beyond that, we have $100 million of comprehensive general liability coverage applies above that. Based on that coverage and what we know today, we do not expect any claim payments to have a material impact on the liquidity.

That brings me to the Six Flags over Georgia. We own about 1/3 of the partnership units. And in January, we may buy the remaining units under the end-of-term option we exercised in December 2024. The amount table should every partner choose to be paid out would be approximately $370 million set up by a formula in the partnership agreement.

However, we are in active dialogue with the unitholders and some partners may elect to roll over their units and defer the payment, which will reduce our cash requirements. We will update you when we have more information on any such rollover.

Today, we pay about $26 million a year in distributions to the Georgia partners. Once we own their units, those distributions end. At the current rate, interest on the revolver borrowing would be about $21 million a year while giving us the full ownership of Park.

Our priority is to reduce leverage. As we optimize the portfolio, proceeds from the asset sales that don't fit our strategy, will be directed primarily to paying down debt. Our future planning shows adequate liquidity through next year's seasonal low point without any incremental debt, except for revolver borrowings under our credit facility.

Turning to the fourth quarter. As John mentioned, October was softer than we planned with attendance down 9% versus last year. About half of that came from unfavorable weather on several of our most important weekends earlier in the month, including from Hurricane [indiscernible] and the other half from the impact of the incident at Six Flags over Georgia and the related right closures.

Encouragingly, in the last week of October, we saw year-over-year growth, excluding directly impacted parks. Last year's fourth quarter same part adjusted EBITDA was $166.9 million, and we now expect to generate approximately $140 million to $150 million in the fourth quarter this year.

The vast majority of the difference compared to the year ago period reflects the month of October. While we are working hard to limit this impact, I think it's important to put into perspective as the difference only represents about 3% of our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA. And even with the fourth quarter headwinds, we are expecting the same part adjusted EBITDA to grow for the full year compared with last year.

October typically brings in 60% to 65% of our fourth quarter revenue, leaving the remainder to be earned in November and December. We expect about 60 more operating days in the quarter compared to last year, mainly from the holiday in park events.

For modeling purposes, those holiday operating days draw lower attendance than operating days in October. However, they are very accretive days from a cash flow perspective. Our parks remained open throughout October and for the full year, we expect approximately 4,868 operating days more than 2025. To be clear, we see this shortfall as temporary in nature.

It reflects events specific to this October. Not a change in the underlying demand for our parts or in the long-term earning power of the business.

We are already responding to marketing, pricing and product offers and nothing we saw in October changed our operating plan for 2027 or our long-term emissions to drive an expansion in markets.

To sum up, I want to reiterate the 3 messages I started with. First, the third quarter was a good quarter. We grew revenue and adjusted EBITDA, held our margin at 42%, group paid attendance and increased per capita spending despite challenging weather in several of our key markets.

Second, our year-to-date results show a stronger business compared to last year. Adjusted EBITDA is up by 11%. Our margin is up by about 200 basis points.

We have generated $257 million of free cash flow, and we are on track for $70 million to $80 million of gross cost savings this year, and we expect to grow the same park adjusted EBITDA for the full year.

Third, we have ample liquidity to buy the remaining units of Georgia partnership. We ended the quarter with $1.06 billion of liquidity we expect to end the year with sufficient liquidity to fund the payment in full if needed. With that, I'll turn it back to John for closing comments.

John Reilly

Thanks, Ash. What gives me confidence is what I see across our parks. Roughly 95,000 full-time and seasonal team members who show up every day with passion to create fun, thrills and lifetime memories for our guests.

We know confidence is earned, and we intend to keep earning it quarter by quarter. Thank you to our teams, and thank you for your support. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

分析師問答

Steven Wieczynski

So John or Ash, maybe I'm reading too much into this, but to me, it sounds like you're more open to potentially selling or shutting down additional parks versus where your commentary was, let's call it, 3 months ago.

Am I thinking about that the right way? And if I am, wondering what maybe you guys what made you change your mind on your thought process versus just a couple of months ago. And if we think about lowering your park base, I mean, do you guys actually have a number in mind that you want to get to, meaning parts goes down to X or Y or what that number could look like?

John Reilly

Steve, it's John. I'll take that. So when we commented on this last -- at the last call, the response was that we didn't have anything underway for the operating season, and that really was a question of the timing and where we were in the season and our real focus on execution delivering for our expanded pass base and continuing to push the expansion of our passive membership base.

We're happy with that result. That said, we do believe there's opportunity for further portfolio optimization. And now that the bulk of the season has passed those discussions are underway. And we're not going to quantify that in terms of a number of parks.

What I can tell you is we've done a lot of work to strategize, categorize our parks in terms of values to our strategies going forward, things like expanding the task base and regional membership, which parks are in the most critical networks.

We're also looking at accretion or improvement to our leverage ratio where would that have the biggest impact. So it's 1 of the many measures we're taking to strengthen the company, we'll give you more specifics as we go forward. .

Steven Wieczynski

Okay. Got you. And then if we think about the long-term goal of getting margins into the mid-30s, wondering what long-term maybe means to you? Just trying to understand how long that might take?

And then maybe also help us think about some of the drivers of what's going to improve that margin improvement going forward?

John Reilly

Yes, Steve, thanks. So we're pleased with our progress thus far this year. We have some green shoots, and we have about 200 basis points in improvement -- the way we think about that, we're not going to guide today in terms of a year target. And as we go forward, we'll try to provide more color on these.

But what I would say is -- we expect we can get about halfway there on cost work. I mean, Ash mentioned in his earlier comments that we had around $70 million in cost savings, offset by some inflation and other factors. We're pleased with our early progress, and we're building an organization that can more reliably deliver that every year, I think, as he alluded.

But the way we see it is we can get about halfway there on cost base and then the improvement in the revenue, this business scales up very well. The improvement in the revenue should get us the rest of the way there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

David Katz

I wanted to just get your latest thoughts on the increase in pass base right? Presumably with single-day visitation moving down, how do you look at the balance of the equilibrium between those and the dynamics that it implies for per caps, for visibility, obviously, all of the different parts to it.

Obviously, we've seen that dynamic elsewhere in our coverage and what it implies for the long term. So I'd love some a little more depth of thoughts on that.

John Reilly

Yes. Thanks, David. This is John. I'll take that. So in terms of the sort of increase in pass and membership base and potential impact on share of total tickets. This is the way we look at it. First, we're here to maximize total revenue.

And so we may, as we trade some people up, lower the per visit per cap but we're happy to take the extra visits and the higher total revenue, increasing the total value per guest. We're working on this in 2 different ways, and we've strengthened our marketing and our commercial engines within the company.

The structure of the products, the trade-up, which we're seeing tremendous results, the regional visitation is something that our commercial team is driving deliberately, along with the marketing team, and we're seeing results.

But what I will say is our marketing team has also made a lot of progress in the last month on our marketing technology infrastructure that's going to allow us to market in a more targeted way, a more personal way with personas and different guests that we haven't messaged to before.

So we think we can do both. Over time, we think we can grow single day. And over time, we can grow past through the capabilities that we're building in marketing. But what I -- and we have traded a few points from single-day tickets, about 3 points to pass the membership.

But we feel good about the trade-off overall because it's growing total revenue, and we feel good that our marketing and commercial engines are going to be able to manage this as we go forward.

Steven Wieczynski

Right. And as my follow-up, this may be for Ash. There's been such a dynamic debate over CapEx levels across the company, obviously, that predates you all. How do you feel about the sustainability of your maintenance CapEx levels so far? And how do we think about a total CapEx budget from a long-term perspective? I can recall us modeling like a 9%, 10% level.

Is that what you think is required in this business on an ongoing basis?

Ashok Walia

Yes. Thank you. One of the things that I shared in our prepared remarks was our very rigorous approach to capital allocation. So we have multiple projects that we look and evaluate and we try to prioritize them based on the return that they're going to deliver to us.

And then what I said is that all the projects that are not passing that hurdle are put back into the pipeline to compete in the next year. When I look at CapEx, the CapEx is in 2 components. One is our growth CapEx, and the other one is our infrastructure CapEx. The infrastructure CapEx includes things like maintenance, safety, security, that's part of the infrastructure piece.

That usually ranges between 20% to 30% of our total CapEx. It depends on timing. It also depends on the mix of the growth and we continue to look at it. We'll continue to refine on it. But right now, where we are and how we see the levels that we have, we are pleased with the levels of capital that we are able to invest in the business between growth and between infrastructure. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.

Arpine Kocharyan

I apologize hopping between calls today, so it's very possible you have already addressed this but I was hoping you could dissect the past program trends a little bit more. It seems like there are some there were some definitional changes in the press release. You're now signing past member sales plus a sales plus member sales.

Specifically, that 2.5% increase you are seeing right now in past program plus members. How has that pace through October? I guess what I'm really trying to get to is how much of the Georgia incident might have impacted your past sales in October and kind of trying to get to readthroughs for 2027 or 2027 impact from this sort of foregone sales, if you want to follow it that way.

John Reilly

In, this is John. I'll take that. So in our past program, there is in our past base, it's a past and membership base and it's an active base at any moment in time during the year, and it fluctuates based on people moving in and out of membership or potentially certain passes expiring. .

So we added membership to about 8 parks that had never had membership at the beginning of the summer. And now we have a higher membership base. So that is one impact. The second thing that we did is we intentionally launched the 2027 pass program later than we did in last year.

And that was to avoid what we call skip level behavior where people are getting 15 years of a pass on a one-season purchase. So the combination of membership and an intentional delay in the launch in the summer by a couple of weeks, has lowered the base of 2027 sales as we go in.

We expect that to be even maybe slightly up as we get to the new year in terms of the passive membership base. So that's the dynamic there, and there's an intentional skip level delay so that we can yield more out of those passes going forward.

As far as Georgia and trying to model any impacts from there. Well, first our main focus here is on the investigation and on safety, of course.

But what I would say, if you want to talk about the business performance with Georgia, is that if you go back to what we commented on in the script, these are resilient brands, strong brands and all of our research says both the like brands and the Park brands are strong.

We've gone back and studied incidents in the industry, and it's very difficult to make a prediction. But as far as the performance in Georgia, these things are typically not a matter of years and more a matter of months as we do all the right things.

So I don't have anything to quantify that for you. What I can say is the result any impact from that seems to be limited to Georgia and potentially Magic Mountain because we have the X2 matter as well and then some isolated impacts on the parks that have temporary closures due to the rise out of commission for a period of time right now.

But we don't see anything beyond that. And as we move forward, we'll share with you.

Arpine Kocharyan

That's very, very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, and thank you for clarifying the liquidity situation in your release. I think that's very helpful. But I was wondering if you could talk or maybe walk us through a bit more on both Georgia payment as well as -- and this is going to be a lot more forward-looking than you're probably ready to look right now, but sort of your 2028, 2029 maturities, given sort of higher cost of capital today.

But mostly, I'm interested in how you're thinking about the balance sheet more medium term beyond just the next quarter. But of course, as we think about next quarter and the Georgia payment, that's probably the more relevant question near term.

Ashok Walia

Yes. So thank you. This is Ash, and I'll take that question. So we've internally modeled our liquidity scenario, knowing the variables that we know today and assuming that we will have to fund Georgia fully. Based on that analysis and based on knowing what the Q1 2026 burn was, we believe we have sufficient liquidity available to us to continue to invest in the business and operate the business. .

That analysis that I talked about, scenario analysis that we prepared does not include any benefits from what John talked about on portfolio optimization. So that would be incremental. We also have if needed.

We also have the level of looking at the growth CapEx and making a refinement on the timing. So we have some flexibility there if needed again. And then obviously, the fact is that we are in active discussion with the partners, and we'll share in terms of what the outcome is and how many partners might want to stay and roll over because that will help reducing our cash flow -- that is not included in the analysis.

The analysis in fuel said everything is fully funded, and we have sufficient liquidity to run the business both from a investment perspective and operations.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

James Hardiman

So obviously, way too early to have guidance with respect to 2027. I don't know if you will ever give guidance on 2027. But I'm sure going fishing here a little bit, but maybe anything that you feel like you have visibility on as we look to 2027, whether it's attendance or admissions pricing, import pricing, labor costs.

Ashok Walia

Weather is always going to be a big swing factor. I don't know if you feel like on balance, 2026 was bad weather year that creates an easier comparison. Obviously, you've had some success setting cost sort of how we should think about sort of incremental run rate savings into 2027.

Again, I'm sort of fishing here, but anything you can give us to help us think through 2027 would be great. So this is Ash and I can start off with the cost piece first. And in terms of the business principle that we've been using from a cost perspective is that cost savings should be such that they offset inflationary pressures and then deliver some to the bottom line.

A lot of work has done within the organization to be able to trace track and report cost savings and also face track and report on the inflationary pressures and the investments we want to make into the business such that the cost savings delivered and slow down after offsetting inflation to the bottom line.

And that will be the growing in approach. While we do this, it's not a onetime effort. It's ongoing, every cost that comes on the table, we turn it and we try to look for opportunities in terms of how we can improve those costs.

We have a view in terms of what the future pipeline would look like, and we are working on that pipeline for 2027 and beyond.

John Reilly

I'll just maybe add, James, in terms of the weather, we don't view it as a positive weather here. We mentioned the wildfire impact other things we had during the summer. But we also don't want to dwell on that because we believe we have enough opportunities with the strategies and priorities we've laid out to move the needle significantly on our own.

And so the one thing I might add to Ash and to add a little bit to our first discussion around the shift in pass and membership in per cap. We do -- we have identified some great opportunities for next year or 2 in terms of fast lane. It's a big business for us.

And we have some pricing opportunities there. We've taken pricing opportunities and reconstituted our dining plans, which are a significant business for us going into next year. So I won't go into all the details but we are working on opportunities to grow the business and weather for us is a uncontrollable. So we'll control the controllables.

James Hardiman

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up to Steve's question up top about portfolio optimization. Basically, if we go back to the last year's sales -- or I guess, this year sales sorry, the EPR sale.

Obviously, you were able to generate cash, but you lost a certain amount of EBITDA generation. And so the net impact on leverage was pretty minimal. But I think if I'm hearing what you're saying correctly, maybe you think that leverage can be meaningful as a result of continued portfolio optimization from here again, similar to how you've laid it out.

I don't know if I'm reading too much into sort of what you've said so far? Or is there an opportunity to sort of assist the balance sheet and the leverage as a result of continued optimization.

John Reilly

So we look at this 2 ways, James. And you look at the silver parks that we sold earlier this year, yes, they did help us with the cash. And the leverage ratio, although it didn't necessarily lower our leverage ratio, we sold some smaller parks that weren't a major focus for us. at a multiple that was similar to where the portfolio was trading.

So that gives us strategic focus from the management team, resources, capital allocation to redirect to the bigger parks. That's an important step for us. and we're open to similar sales like that going forward.

But secondly, because in some smaller parks in the portfolio, we were able to get approximately a similar multiple. If you look at all the parks in our portfolio, they're not -- they wouldn't all sell at the same multiple.

So there's an opportunity to do more potentially on the leverage ratio. But again, this is something we're exploring. We don't have anything to announce today.

Ashok Walia

And if I may, I'd just add to what John has said. Portfolio optimization is one lever. The other thing we have to also keep in mind that we are going to focus on continuing to grow our attendance in the business and hold the middle of the P&L between cost savings and inflationary pressures that we see.

So that the EBITDA also improves, that will also help drive an improvement in leverage. So it's multiple levers that we have that we have to deploy [indiscernible]

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

Brandt Montour

Okay. Great. So the first question is circling back on the commentary on October, I was hoping you could be a little bit more specific when you said that you saw visitation growth in the last week of October, directly impacted parts. When you say directly impacted parts, are those Georgia and Madison?

Are those all parks with Rider we shut down? Are those sort of all like branded products sort of give us a sense of what proportion of the portfolio was able to grow towards the end of October.

John Reilly

Yes. I think without going into all the individual parks, we saw some softness in Georgia. And if you look at the incident and the ride-related closures, that was about half of it. And as I mentioned, that's primarily Georgia and Magic Mountain. And then there are some parts that because of the incident, they had 1 or 2 very signature rides closed and that had some impact some temporary impact.

That was not all the parts with ride closures. So if you look at that, that's around half -- and then we have the name storm that we mentioned in the other factors there. So towards the end of the month, we did see improvement. We saw improvement in different regions.

There's not a pattern to the improvement that we saw in terms of performance with parks that are branded Six Flags or not. So beyond what we've already discussed, we don't see an impact on the other 6 Flags branded parks.

Brandt Montour

Okay. That's helpful. And then just circling back on the last discussion. Can you guys just give us an update on the Maryland and enrichment asset sales specifically?

John Reilly

Yes. The Maryland asset sale is still targeted for late 2027. The buyer is going through an entitlement process to move towards finalization of the sale. So that hasn't changed. And then in terms of Richmond, we have move forward in the process to it and are in a process to evaluate bids, we don't have anything more to say beyond that. .

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Schulz with Truist Securities.

Unknown Analyst

When I look at the slide on paths and memberships with the active -- active pass base of 7.1% as of September '27, but then expected to be flat to slightly up. That would imply, obviously, a sizable deceleration happened in the -- probably for obvious reasons in October.

What was your season pass sales pace in October that would lead to that lower expectation.

John Reilly

Yes. I would go back to some of the intentional decisions we made in terms of skip level behavior and a later launch, that is a big impact in July in terms of the numbers sold because for 2 weeks, we weren't selling the next year's past. The other impact is that we have more people in membership and those are rolling over the calendar period. We're not going to comment on October.

What I would say for October is we mentioned the month was softer. The pass base was -- in terms of the past sales pace, it was lower as well. And we do have a number of measures quarter to go that we believe are going to give us an opportunity for improvement there. .

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank.

Chris Woronka

All details so far. John, I think reduction in CapEx is certainly a discretionary CapEx is certainly positive. But the question on that is do the parks look different next year in terms of some of that kind of hard dollar CapEx meeting going over to OpEx in terms of -- you referenced experiences, is that going to potentially include things like we're live entertainment and other things that maybe make the parks look different each week. .

John Reilly

We are looking at expanded events and entertainment, and that will be part of the slate going forward. We have a number of focus parks as part of how we optimize the portfolio and how we ask them, optimize the capital allocation and the expense allocation.

Magic Mountain, for example, is going to be undergoing a major refurbishment that's all contemplated in the numbers that I shared with you, and that's contemplated within our savings plan. Additionally, in New Jersey, Six Flags Great Adventure and Six Flags Great America and Chicago.

We have similar programs underway, making the parks more friendly, providing more comfort shade amenities, but that's all contemplated within the plan. There may be some expansion in entertainment operating expenses. We did that this year, and we'll do it as it makes sense.

Chris Woronka

Okay. Very helpful. And then I guess just as a follow-up, I don't know if you guys gave out any data points on this or how you look at it. But do you think you still have room on peak attendance days or weekends. I think -- and you see the opportunity going forward when you talk about rebuilding attendance.

Do you think that comes more in kind of the some of the shoulder days, I guess, you might call them? Or do you think that there's still a lot of room on some of these peak weekends and holidays. And I guess I would kind of strip out weather and just kind of look at it on a clean weather basis, if that's possible.

John Reilly

Yes. What I would say is there's a lot of excess capacity in these parks. And we're not bumping up on closures or anything like that as we operate. Certainly, Halloween is busier. In terms of when during the year that we have opportunities, we'll use our event strategy going forward to help build upon building parts of the year where we have opportunities.

If you look at Boysenberry the food and beverage event and [indiscernible] It's hugely successful. We don't have similar events in the other parks. We can deploy those at times of year when we have a lot of excess capacity or an opportunity. But that said, we've got opportunity throughout the calendar year.

Even in Halloween, we can open earlier or we can stay open later. We can move into September. So there's opportunity throughout the calendar.

Operator

We have reached the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to John for closing remarks. .

John Reilly

Thank you. We appreciate you joining us this morning. We're energized by the opportunity ahead and grateful to our team members across all of the parks. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.