普威登斯金融控股 (PROV) 2027 財年第一季法說會：淨利息收益率上升，信貸維持穩定

重點摘要

• Provident Financial Holdings 在 2027 財年第一季錄得約 400 萬美元的貸款成長，主要來自單戶住宅貸款。
• 新發放貸款總額為 4,540 萬美元，上一季則為 4,640 萬美元。本金還款及清償金額較上季減少 6% 至 4,080 萬美元。
• 淨利差 (NIM) 較上季上升 11 個基點至 3.32%。聯邦住房貸款銀行 (FHLB) 發放的特別現金股利貢獻了約 10 個基點；若排除該收益，管理層估計淨利差約為 3.22%。
• 信貸品質維持穩定。不良資產為 50.4 萬美元，佔總資產的 4 個基點，且無早期逾期貸款。
• 管理層預期截至 2026 年 12 月止季度的貸款發放量將維持在近期單季 2,900 萬至 4,600 萬美元的區間內，而貸款清償活動預計將進一步放緩。
• 公司於 2026 年 10 月 22 日批准了一項新的 5% 股票回購計畫。第一財季的回購與現金股利總額約為 248 萬美元，約相當於單季淨利潤的 158%。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

新發放貸款繼續支撐資產收益率。2026 年 9 月季度發放的新貸款加權平均利率為 6.19%，而季末持有至投資貸款組合的加權平均利率為 5.43%。

再融資誘因下降使提前還款活動減少。管理層表示，穩定的案源儲備應能支持貸款持續成長，儘管假期季節通常會拖累貸款發放量。

信貸指標保持良好。以辦公室為擔保的貸款總額為 3,330 萬美元，佔持有至投資貸款的 3.2%。管理層表示借款人狀況與擔保品特性支持其持續優良表現。在 2027 財年剩餘時間內，僅有三筆總額為 42.4 萬美元的商業不動產貸款到期。

該公司在本季度以 160 萬美元回購了約 8.6 萬股股票，並發放了約 88 萬美元的現金股利。

管理層業績展望

管理層預期 2026 年 12 月季度的貸款發放量將維持在近期單季 2,900 萬至 4,600 萬美元的區間內。貸款清償量預計將低於 6 月和 9 月季度的水準，這有助於支持資產負債表的適度成長。

預計約 1.16 億美元的浮動利率貸款將在 2026 年 12 月季度重新定價。管理層預期利率將上升約 65 個基點，使加權平均利率從 6.56% 提高至 7.21%。

同時，1.049 億美元的聯邦住房貸款銀行 (FHLB) 借款、券商代銷定期存單 (brokered CD) 及政府定期存單將到期，其加權平均利率為 3.94%。管理層預計這些資金來源在重新定價時利率將略有上升。

扣除 FHLB 特別股利收益後，管理層預計 12 月季度的淨利差將擴大，但增幅將小於第一財季報告的增幅。

風險與關注焦點

較高的市場利率降低了借款人的提前還款意願，進而延長了貸款組合的預期存續期。這是本季度提存 77.7 萬美元信用損失準備的主要原因。

資金成本仍是一大限制。管理層表示，將到期的批發性資金調度進行向下重定價的機會大致已經結束，而 12 月季度到期的資金預計將以更高利率重新定價。

儘管公司的曝險有限且目前表現穩定，但商業不動產（特別是以辦公室為擔保的貸款）仍處於密切監控之中。

分析師問答亮點

關於貸款成長，管理層表示較低的清償量應有助於抵銷假期期間季節性較弱的貸款發放量。公司仍預期 2026 年 12 月季度以及可能在 3 月季度實現一定成長。

關於淨利差趨勢，管理層強調了浮動利率貸款重新定價以及高於現有組合平均水準的新發放貸款帶來的效益。這些好處將部分被到期批發資金成本上升所抵銷。

當被問及重組持有至到期證券組合時，管理層表示曾考量過該選項，但未表示有推動計畫。該組合正在自然到期，現金流正以顯著更高的利率進行再投資。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Provident Financial Holdings First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Donavon Ternes, President and CEO. Donavon, please go ahead.

Donavon Ternes

Thank you, Rebecca. Good morning. This is Donavon Ternes, President and CEO of Provident Financial Holdings. And on the call with me is Peter Fan, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I have a brief administrative item to address. Our presentation today discusses the company's business outlook and will include forward-looking statements. Those statements include descriptions of management's plans, objectives or goals for future operations, products or services, forecasts of financial or other performance measures and statements about the company's general outlook for interest rates, economic and business conditions.

We also may make forward-looking statements during the question-and-answer period following management's presentation. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed today.

Information on the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from any forward-looking statement is available from the earnings release that was distributed yesterday, from the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2026, and from other SEC filings that are filed subsequent to the Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are effective only as of the date that they are made, and the company assumes no obligation to update this information.

To begin with, thank you for participating in our call. I hope that each of you has had an opportunity to review our earnings release that we distributed yesterday, which describes our fiscal -- or our first quarter of fiscal 2027 results. In the most recent quarter, we achieved modest loan growth of approximately $4 million, primarily in our portfolio of single-family loans. We originated $45.4 million of loans held for investment, a slight decrease from the $46.4 million originated in the prior sequential quarter. Loan principal payments and payoffs declined to $40.8 million, a decrease of 6% from the $43.5 million in the June 2026 quarter.

Loan prepayment activity declined in the current interest rate environment as refinancing opportunities are less favorable. We continue to make adjustments to our underwriting requirements within certain loan segments to support disciplined, sustainable growth in origination volume. Despite the volatility in the market, our loan pipeline has remained stable, suggesting that our loan origination volume in the December 2026 quarter will remain within the range of recent quarters which has been between $29 million and $46 million.

We would also expect to see continued moderation in loan prepayment activity. Our credit quality remains strong -- you will note that nonperforming assets were just $504,000 or 4 basis points of total assets at September 30, 2026, essentially unchanged from $505,000 at June 30, 2026.

Additionally, there were no loans in the early stages of delinquency at September 30, 2026, indicating no emerging credit issues. We continue to closely monitor commercial real estate loans, particularly loans secured by office buildings but we believe based on our borrower profiles and collateral characteristics that these loans will continue to perform in accordance with their terms. We have outlined these characteristics on Slide 13 of our quarterly investor presentation, which shows that our exposure to loans secured by various types of office buildings is limited to $33.3 million or 3.2% of loans held for investment.

You should also note that we have only 3 CRE loans that totaled $424,000 maturing in the remainder of fiscal 2027. We recorded a $777,000 provision for credit losses in the September 2026 quarter. The provision recorded in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 was primarily attributable to an increase in the expected life of the loan portfolio, resulting from higher market interest rates which reduces the incentive for borrowers to prepay. The allowance for credit losses to gross loans held for investment was 64 basis points at September 30, 2026, an increase of 7 basis points from 57 basis points at June 30, 2026. Compared to the sequential quarter ended June 30, 2026, our net interest margin increased 11 basis points to 3.32% for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, comprised of a 20 basis point increase in asset yields partially offset by a 9 basis point increase in funding costs.

For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, our average cost of deposits increased 11 basis points to 1.47%, while our cost of borrowings decreased 3 basis points to 4.01%. The September 2026 quarter net interest margin was augmented by approximately 10 basis points as the result of a Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend. The net deferred loan cost amortization associated with loan payoffs in the September 2026 quarter compared to the average of the previous 5 quarters, positively impacted the net interest margin by 1 basis point compared to a positive impact of 3 basis points in the June 2026 quarter.

New loan production is being originated at higher mortgage interest rates than the weighted average rate of the existing loan portfolio. The weighted average rate of loans originated in the September 2026 quarter was 6.19%, compared to the weighted average rate of 5.43% for loans held for investment as of September 30, 2026. In the December 2026 quarter, our adjustable rate loans are repricing at interest rates that are higher than their current interest rates. We have approximately $116 million of loans repricing to an interest rate that we anticipate will be approximately 65 basis points higher to a weighted average interest rate of 7.21% from the current interest rate of 6.56%.

I would note that the opportunity to reprice maturing wholesale funding downward is largely behind us. We have approximately $104.9 million of Federal Home Loan Bank advances, brokered certificates of deposit and government certificates of deposit maturing in the December 2026 quarter at a weighted average interest rate of 3.94%. Given the current interest rate environment, we expect to reprice these maturities somewhat higher. All of this suggests that any net interest margin expansion, adjusted for the Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend in the September 2026 quarter will be something less than recent prior quarters.

Our FTE count at September 30, 2026, was 160 compared to 164 1 year ago. We continue to look for operating efficiencies throughout the company to lower operating expenses. Operating expenses were $7.6 million in the September 2026 quarter, a slight decline from $7.7 million in the June 2026 quarter. Our short-term strategy focuses on disciplined balance sheet growth by expanding our loan portfolio. We believe this approach is well suited to the current economic environment and the normalized yield curve. During the September 2026 quarter, we made progress on the execution of this strategy, maintaining our loan origination volume while benefiting from a more moderate level of loan prepayments.

We exceed well-capitalized capital ratios by a significant margin, providing flexibility to execute on our business plan and capital management goals. We believe that maintaining our cash dividend is very important. We also recognize that prudent capital returns to shareholders through stock buyback programs is a responsible and effective capital management tool. To that end, we approved a new 5% stock buyback plan on October 22, 2026. During the September 2026 quarter, we repurchased approximately 86,000 shares at a total cost of $1.6 million. Combined with approximately $880,000 of cash dividends paid to our shareholders, total capital returned to shareholders represented approximately 158% of the September quarter's net income.

We encourage everyone to review our September 30 investor presentation that has been posted to our website. You will find that we included slides regarding financial metrics, asset quality and capital management, which we believe will provide additional insight on our solid financial foundation supporting the future growth of the company.

We will now entertain any questions that you may have regarding our financial results. Thank you. Rebecca?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Adam Kroll with Piper Sandler.

分析師問答

Adam Kroll

I'm on for Matthew Clark. Maybe just starting out on loan growth, it looks like balances held pretty steady and some small origination volume during the quarter. But I guess I'd be curious to hear how pipelines are shaping up so far this quarter. And if you expect any potential change in prepayments with the drop in rates since the end of the quarter?

Donavon Ternes

Sure. So we started the quarter with pipelines relatively similar to where they were during much of the September quarter. We are entering, however, in the December quarter and the beginning of the March quarter. The holiday season which there is typically drops with respect to loan origination volume unless the country is in a refinance position where interest rates are such that refinance activity is elevated. That is not the case today. In fact, we would expect our loan payoff volume to decline from what we saw in the September and June quarters, for instance, as interest rates have risen to a point where it really is a small percentage of total mortgages outstanding that are in the money with respect to the ability to refinance at a lower rate.

So on that side, we think payoffs will come down. That will help growth. But additionally, we are entering the poor season, if you will, with respect to origination activity because we're entering the holiday season. Nonetheless, we do expect that we will be able to gin up some growth in the December quarter and perhaps in the March quarter.

Adam Kroll

Got it. I appreciate the color there. Maybe moving to the margin. Obviously, you have some nice tailwinds on the loan repricing side of things. But maybe if I could get an updated outlook or how you think the margin will perform and walk through sort of your deposit beta assumptions if we were to get a couple of more rate hikes.

Donavon Ternes

Of course. So if we think about where our back book of loans are, we described it in the prepared remarks, we're going to see a good bit of loans repricing in the December quarter, and they're repricing upward nicely to the tune of about 65 basis points. Additionally, with respect to new origination volume, we would expect to see new origination volume maybe coming in at 150 basis points higher than the existing loan portfolio or so, and that would also help net interest margin.

What we also described in the prepared remarks is that our maturing wholesale borrowings in the December quarter which are similar in balance to what is repricing on the loan side, they're going to reprice upward and I think they could reprice upward similarly to what the loans are repricing at. And so if I were to think about where our net interest margin on an adjusted basis, taking out approximately 10 basis points for the Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend, that puts us at about a 3.22% margin for the September quarter. We were at a 3.21% margin in the June quarter. So I would think that we will still expand our net interest margin in the December quarter, but it won't be what we saw with respect to 11 basis points from the June to September quarter if we take out that special cash dividend from the Federal Home Loan Bank.

So I think margin expands. I think it expands at a lower amount than what we saw this quarter.

Adam Kroll

Got it. And then last 1 for me. Just given the really strong capital levels you have today, has there been any consideration or thoughts into just restructuring the HTM portfolio?

Donavon Ternes

We have given it some thought. I don't know that, that's something that we're going to take on at this point. We like the strong capital ratios that we have, and that book of business with respect to investment securities is burning off quite nicely, and that cash flow is being reinvested at significantly higher rates. And so I think we'll let it take its normal course as we go down the time line.

Operator

There are currently no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Ternes for closing remarks.

Donavon Ternes

Thank you, Rebecca, and thank you, everyone, for attending our earnings call this quarter, and I look forward to speaking with you at the end of next quarter. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.