US Dollar Index (DXY) hits weekly highs above 102.00 ahead of October's NFP release
- The DXY accelerates its recovery in risk-off markets and hits weekly highs just above 102.00.
- The safe-haven US Dollar is outperforming its peers as global equity markets tank, dragged by tech shares.
- Investors are bracing for a strong US NFP later in the day after a string of positive labour market reports throughout the week.
The US Dollar (USD) is showing the strongest performance among major currencies on Friday, amid a mix of risk-aversion, following a tech-led rout in equity markets, and investors’ hopes of a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) appreciates 0.4% in the day so far, reaching weekly highs just above 102.00.
Markets are strongly averse to risk on Friday, following sharp declines in global equity markets, as investors sold chipmakers' shares, concerned that the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections will bring tougher regulations to the AI sector and push back plans to build new data centres.
Dollar support seen as Fed jobs view underpins defensive FX positioning
On the macroeconomic front, the focus is on October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to show a 65K net increase in employment, following a 29K rise in September. Labour data released earlier this week, namely Wednesday's ADP Employment Change Report and Thursday's weekly Jobless Claims, have shown better-than-expected figures, boosting hopes of a positive surprise on Friday’s NFP report.
ING analyst Chris Turner argues that a “decent jobs number today will confirm the Fed's understanding that the US jobs market is 'solid' and could provide some support to short-dated rates and the Dollar.”
From a wider perspective, Turner observes that “US short-dated rates have fallen close to 50bp since late September and the Dollar's yield advantage over other major pairs has softened a little,” but he warns that it is still unclear “whether this tech sell-off leads to a broader re-assessment of the US growth and inflation trajectory.”
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 06, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 65K
Previous: 29K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Last release: Fri Oct 02, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 4.2%
Consensus: 4.1%
Previous: 4.1%
Source:
