CEE FX: Strong Dollar and energy rebound weigh – ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that rising global energy prices and a stronger Dollar are pressuring Central and Eastern European currencies. EUR/PLN is near 4.420, EUR/CZK at its highest since mid-October, and EUR/HUF above 365. ING maintains a bearish view on CEE FX, expecting further downside for regional currencies as markets follow the broader global narrative ahead of local GDP data and CNB minutes.

Regional currencies face renewed downside pressure

"Following a rebound in global energy prices, we observed a rise in rates across the CZK and HUF markets, roughly 5-8bp along the entire curve. At the same time, CEE FX has come under renewed pressure due to energy prices and the US dollar reaching new highs."

"EUR/PLN has returned to near its local high of around 4.420. EUR/CZK has reached its highest levels since mid-October, and EUR/HUF has moved above 365."

"This aligns with our bearish view on CEE FX, and we maintain this bias."

"Until then, however, the direction remains unchanged, and we may see further downside for CEE currencies."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)