Employers Holdings (EIG) - Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T26: Lucratividade Melhora com Queda dos Prêmios

Principais Destaques

• A Employers Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: EIG) relatou um lucro líquido no 3º trimestre de 2026 de US$ 0,64 por ação diluída, em comparação com um prejuízo líquido de US$ 0,36 por ação no 3º trimestre de 2025. O lucro líquido ajustado foi de US$ 0,71 por ação diluída, comparado a um prejuízo líquido ajustado de US$ 1,10.
• O índice de sinistralidade e despesas de regulação de sinistros (LAE) melhorou para 71,2%, ante 97,1%, principalmente porque o trimestre do ano anterior incluiu US$ 38 milhões em reforço de provisões. A empresa não registrou desenvolvimento de anos anteriores em seus negócios voluntários durante 2026.
• O índice combinado GAAP caiu para 108,4%, ante 129,7%. A administração descreveu a melhoria como significativa, mas disse que continua focada em restaurar a rentabilidade de subscrição aos níveis históricos.
• Os prêmios brutos emitidos caíram 18%, para US$ 151,1 milhões, enquanto os prêmios líquidos ganhos diminuíram 17%, para US$ 160,2 milhões. A contração refletiu ações deliberadas de precificação e subscrição em um mercado brando prolongado.
• A receita líquida de investimentos aumentou 23,8%, para US$ 32,3 milhões, incluindo US$ 5,6 milhões provenientes de investimentos em private equity. Excluindo essas distribuições, a receita de investimentos subiu 6%, para aproximadamente US$ 26,7 milhões.
• A administração espera que seu programa focado de resubscrição percorra toda a carteira durante o 4º trimestre de 2026, após o qual se espera que os prêmios se estabilizem até certo ponto.

Principais Dados Financeiros

O lucro líquido no acumulado do ano foi de US$ 50,8 milhões, em comparação com US$ 34,2 milhões nos primeiros nove meses de 2025. O lucro líquido ajustado subiu de US$ 7,4 milhões para US$ 35,9 milhões.

Desempenho Operacional e dos Negócios

As apólices em vigor caíram 8%, para aproximadamente 124.000. A redução menor em relação aos prêmios refletiu a retenção da maioria dos clientes de pequenas empresas, enquanto a empresa deixou classes e jurisdições selecionadas.

O produto de excesso de responsabilidade para acidentes de trabalho lançado em junho havia subscrito 31 contas e US$ 6,5 milhões em prêmios até a teleconferência de resultados. A Employers Holdings também começou a desenvolver um produto com franquia elevada voltado para lançamento em 2027.

O investimento em tecnologia e a adoção de IA continuaram a se expandir. A equipe de tecnologia utilizou IA em dois terços das tarefas de trabalho elegíveis durante o 3º trimestre de 2026. Um novo aplicativo de resumo de sinistros baseado em IA avaliou todo o estoque de sinistros abertos da empresa, e a administração espera que ele permita à equipe de sinistros realocar mais de 50.000 horas ao longo de três anos.

O rendimento contábil da carteira de renda fixa aumentou 40 pontos-base ano a ano, para 5%. A duration modificada ficou em 4,3, enquanto a qualidade média de crédito permaneceu em A+. Juros mais altos elevaram outros prejuízos abrangentes acumulados em US$ 61,7 milhões, atingindo US$ 74 milhões, devido aos menores valores de mercado dos títulos de renda fixa. A administração afirmou que a queda não esteve relacionada à qualidade de crédito.

A Employers Holdings retornou US$ 24,4 milhões aos acionistas durante o trimestre, compostos por US$ 18,1 milhões em recompra de ações e US$ 6,3 milhões em dividendos regulares. A empresa recomprou 373.848 ações a um preço médio de US$ 48,44 e ainda tinha US$ 94,9 milhões disponíveis sob sua autorização para 2026. O conselho de administração também declarou um dividendo de US$ 0,34 por ação para o 4º trimestre de 2026, a ser pago em 3 de dezembro aos acionistas registrados até 12 de novembro.

Perspectivas da Administração

A administração espera que o processo focado de resubscrição, iniciado no final de 2025, avance por toda a carteira durante o 4º trimestre de 2026. Assim que as apólices afetadas forem canceladas ou não renovadas, a empresa prevê maior estabilidade na receita, embora a gestão tenha enfatizado que o crescimento continua difícil enquanto os custos de sinistros de acidentes de trabalho seguirem em queda.

Espera-se que taxas de reinvestimento mais elevadas sustentem os lucros ao longo do tempo. A empresa também projeta lançar em 2027 seu produto de acidentes de trabalho com franquia elevada.

Riscos e Pontos de Atenção

• O índice combinado GAAP permaneceu acima de 100%, em 108,4%, apesar da melhoria substancial ano a ano.
• O volume de prêmios continuou a se contrair, uma vez que a empresa priorizou a rentabilidade em detrimento do crescimento em um ambiente de preços brandos.
• A administração relatou pressão contínua de alta nas comissões de novos negócios, à medida que as seguradoras competem por participação de mercado. A Employers Holdings está aumentando as comissões apenas onde acredita que as margens de subscrição permitem.
• A frequência nacional de sinistros continuou a cair, impulsionada por estados fora da Califórnia. No entanto, a frequência na Califórnia aumentou nos anos de ocorrência recentes, principalmente devido a sinistros de trauma cumulativo até 2025.
• A administração observou sinais iniciais de pressão sobre a gravidade dos sinistros fora da Califórnia para o ano de ocorrência de 2026, mas atribuiu isso a um pequeno número de grandes perdas em vez de uma tendência ampla.
• Juros mais altos reduziram o valor de mercado dos títulos de renda fixa e pesaram sobre o valor patrimonial relatado, embora a administração tenha afirmado que o movimento não refletiu uma piora na qualidade de crédito.

Destaques das Perguntas e Respostas dos Analistas

Resubscrição e estabilização de prêmios: A administração disse que suas ações se concentraram em classes e jurisdições específicas, em vez de serem aplicadas de forma abrangente. O processo deve estar substancialmente refletido em toda a carteira até o final do 4º trimestre de 2026, sustentando certa estabilização nos prêmios a partir de então.

Frequência de sinistros: A frequência continuou a cair em toda a carteira nacional da empresa, mas a Califórnia permaneceu como uma exceção. A administração identificou o trauma cumulativo como a principal fonte da elevada frequência na Califórnia e disse que o novo negócio de excesso de acidentes de trabalho deve diversificar a exposição, pois segurados maiores com retenção própria podem ser menos sensíveis a variações de frequência.

Auditorias de folha de pagamento e cancelamentos: A provisão de auditoria permaneceu em aproximadamente US$ 23 milhões, sem alterações durante o 3º trimestre de 2026. A empresa reconheceu cerca de US$ 2,3 milhões em prêmio por não conformidade. Os cancelamentos ficaram relativamente estáveis ano a ano, mas os envios de propostas e cotações aumentaram, à medida que os agentes buscavam melhores preços ou comissões mais altas.

Custos médicos e farmacêuticos: A gravidade geral permaneceu estável ou diminuiu. O índice de custos farmacêuticos da empresa ficou ligeiramente acima dos níveis pré-pandemia, mas a administração afirmou não ter observado evidências de que a acessibilidade financeira aos cuidados de saúde esteja alterando materialmente o comportamento dos sinistros em sua carteira.

Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2026 Employers Holdings, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Lisenby, General Counsel for Employers Holdings. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Lisenby

Thank you, Danny. Today's call is being recorded and webcast from the Investors section of our website, where a replay will be available following the call.

Statements made during this conference call that are not based on historical facts are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are made in reliance on the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the expectations expressed in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to be materially different from our expectations, including the risks set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

All remarks made during the call are current only at the time of the call and will not be updated to reflect subsequent developments. The company also uses its website as a means of disclosing material nonpublic information and for complying with disclosure obligations under SEC Regulation FD. Such disclosures will be included in the Investors section of our website. Accordingly, investors should monitor that section of our website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls and webcast.

In our earnings press release and in our remarks or responses to questions, we may use non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results are included in our financial supplement as an attachment to our earnings press release, our investor presentation and any other materials available in the Investors section of our website.

Now, I will turn the call over to Kathy Antonello, our Chief Executive Officer.

Katherine Antonello

Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me today is Mike Pedraja, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, I will begin with highlights of our third quarter results and then hand it over to Mike for more detail on our financials. Before we take your questions, I'll come back with some closing thoughts.

Our third quarter results reflect the progress we're making to restore our underwriting profitability to historical levels. We reported net income of $0.64 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $0.36 per diluted share in Q3 of 2025. Adjusted net income was $0.71 per diluted share compared to an adjusted net loss of $1.10 per diluted share. The improvement in earnings was driven primarily by the absence of the $38 million of reserve strengthening we recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Our loss and LAE ratio improved to 71.2% from 97.1%. We have not recognized any prior year development on our voluntary business this year, and our current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding the loss portfolio transfer, is 72%.

Our GAAP combined ratio improved to 108.4% from 129.7%. That is significant progress, but we are not satisfied with that level, and we'll continue to strive for underwriting improvement. The reduction in the loss and LAE ratio was slightly offset by the underwriting expense ratio, which was 24.3% compared to 20.6% a year ago and reflected the smaller premium base. Gross premiums written were $151.1 million, a decrease of 18% and net premiums earned were $160.2 million, a decrease of 17%. These decreases reflect the pricing and underwriting actions we've taken to prioritize profitability in the prolonged soft market. Policies in force declined 8% to about 124,000, a smaller decline than premium as we retained the majority of our small business customers while exiting selected classes of business.

Underwriting expenses decreased slightly, primarily because of lower policyholder dividends, lower bad debt expense and premium taxes and assessments. Our commission expense ratio was 12.9% compared to 12% a year ago. Our investment portfolio was a positive contributor with net investment income increasing to $32.3 million, supported by higher yields following our 2025 investment rebalancing and $5.6 million in returns from our private equity investments.

With the significant rise in U.S. interest rates, our portfolio is well positioned to take advantage of higher reinvestment rates, which should contribute to earnings over time. Higher rates also impacted our book value through unrealized market value declines in our fixed income portfolio. The decrease is not a reflection of credit quality. Book value per share, including the deferred gain, was $49.44, up 2.1% from a year ago, but down 5.3% from the end of the second quarter, with both rates including dividends. Adjusted book value per share, which excludes accumulated other comprehensive income, was $53.64, up 7.1% from a year ago and up 1.3% from last quarter, again, with both rates including dividends.

With that, Mike will provide a deeper dive into our third quarter financial results, and then I'll return with some closing remarks. Mike?

Michael Pedraja

Thank you, Kathy. Gross premiums written were $151.1 million compared to $183.9 million for the prior year quarter, a decrease of 18%, reflecting the deliberate pricing and underwriting actions we began in 2025. These actions contributed to declines in both new and renewal business premiums in the quarter. Our losses and LAE were $114 million, a decrease of 38.9%. The decrease was primarily due to the absence of last year's reserve strengthening Kathy mentioned. Our voluntary business, current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding the LPT, was 72%. Our reported loss and LAE ratio was 71.2% compared to 97.1% a year ago.

Commission expense was $20.6 million, a decrease of 10.4%, consistent with lower premiums. Our commission expense ratio was 12.9% compared to 12% a year ago. The increase in the ratio was due primarily to higher commission rates on new business writings in 2026, combined with a onetime adjustment that reduced the 2025 third quarter ratio. Underwriting expenses were $38.9 million, a decrease of 1.8%. Our underwriting expense ratio was 24.3% compared to 20.6% a year ago. Overall, our GAAP combined ratio was 108.4% or 109.2%, excluding the LPT, compared to 129.7% and 130.4% a year ago. Net investment income was $32.3 million, an increase of 23.8%. The increase was primarily the result from our private equity investments, which contributed $5.6 million of distributions this quarter, along with higher yields on fixed maturity securities resulting from our investment rebalancing activity in 2025.

Excluding the private equity distributions, net investment income was approximately $26.7 million, up 6% from last year. Our fixed income book yield was 5%, a 40 basis point increase from last year, while our modified duration was 4.3 and average credit quality remained strong at A+. Net realized and unrealized losses on investments were $3.2 million compared to gains of $21.2 million a year ago. The current period's result was driven by a reduction in the net asset value of our private equity investments related to distributions and by reduced common equity investment gains. Interest and financing expenses were $1.3 million versus $0.2 million a year ago. The increase relates to our $125 million of senior debt associated with the recapitalization plan we announced in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Federal and state income tax expense was $2.9 million, a 20% effective tax rate compared to a benefit of $2.9 million or a 25.9% effective benefit rate a year ago. Our adjusted net income, which excludes net realized and unrealized investment gains and losses, and the benefit of LPT deferred gain amortization was $12.8 million for the quarter compared to an adjusted net loss of $25.5 million last year. Year-to-date, net income was $50.8 million and adjusted net income was $35.9 million compared to $34.2 million and $7.4 million for the 9 months of last year.

Turning to the balance sheet. Stockholders' equity was $785.6 million at quarter end, down from $858.8 million at June 30. Accumulated other comprehensive loss increased by $61.7 million to $74 million due directly to higher interest rates, reducing the market value of our fixed maturity securities. And as Kathy mentioned, is not related to credit quality. These unrealized losses should reverse as bonds approach maturity or if interest rates decline. Adjusted shareholders' equity, which excludes accumulated other comprehensive income and adds back the deferred gain was $943.6 million. We returned $24.4 million to stockholders in the quarter through $18.1 million of share repurchases and $6.3 million of regular quarterly dividends. We repurchased 373,848 shares at an average price of $48.44 per share. That price represented an 8% discount to our beginning book value per share, including the deferred gain and a 9% discount to our beginning adjusted book value per share. We have $94.9 million of repurchase authorization remaining under the 2026 program.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Kathy.

Katherine Antonello

Thank you, Mike. Yesterday, our Board of Directors declared a fourth quarter 2026 dividend of $0.34 per share payable on December 3 to stockholders of record as of November 12. Looking ahead, expanding our workers' compensation product offering is driving additional profitable growth and deepening our relationships with distribution partners. Our excess workers' compensation product, which we launched in June, is off to a strong start with 31 accounts and $6.5 million in premium to date. The product feedback from the market on our value-added service offerings has been very positive. We've begun developing our large deductible product, which we are targeting to launch next year.

We continue to make progress with our technology investments and AI adoption is growing each quarter. AI agents are now writing, testing and documenting software at Employers with the technology team utilizing AI in 2/3 of eligible work tasks in the third quarter. The results are tangible. This month, our new AI-driven claims summary application went live after assessing our entire inventory of open claims. We expect this new tool will allow our claims team to redeploy more than 50,000 hours over 3 years, with the efficiency ultimately benefiting our insureds, their injured workers and the company. It is a very exciting time at Employers, and we are confident that these investments are leading to a stronger and more resilient company.

And with that, Daniel, we will now take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist.

Perguntas e respostas

Mark Hughes

Kathy, the re-underwriting process, I think you started it late in the year last year. When do you think you have -- will have largely completed that and maybe get on the -- more of a footing to hold the top line stable or perhaps grow maybe too tough to ask in this kind of market, but that re-underwriting process, how much more do you have?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. It's a great question, Mark, and you hit on something that is important, it is very tough to grow in a market where loss costs continue to decline. But I will say, when you speak about the re-underwriting effort, it was very surgical. It was in specific classes and jurisdictions. And as you mentioned, we started at the end of last year, and we expect that to roll through the entire book within the fourth quarter of this year. So beyond that, we would expect that premiums will stabilize to some extent because we will be -- all those policies will have nonrenewed or canceled, and we will go back to some stability in our top line.

Mark Hughes

Appreciate that. The question of frequency has come up in a couple of different ways. I was just sort of curious your thoughts on frequency in your book. And then if you hear others like, say, Hartford saying that they're seeing a little bit more of an uptick in frequency, does that make sense in this kind of market?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. I've seen the transcripts where more and more carriers are calling out increases in frequency. I'll talk about our book to begin with. What we're seeing is frequency continuing to decline countrywide. But the devil's in the details, right? When you start to drill down, you might see things differently in different jurisdictions. The decline that we're seeing country-wide is being driven by claims outside of California. That's not new for us. It's something that we've talked about in earnings calls over the past year, 1.5 years. The frequency decreases countrywide are consistent with what you're seeing during the State of the Line and so forth with the long-term industry trends.

California frequency, as I said before, has increased in the latest accident years, and that's consistent with what the WCIRB is seeing and one of the reasons why they are filing for increases. For us, up through 2025, that was driven by cumulative trauma claim frequency. Excluding the CT claims, up through 2025, California claim frequency continued to trend downward. So we're keeping an eye on it. It can be a little bit lumpy from quarter-to-quarter. But overall, country-wide, I would just say that we're seeing decreases. I haven't seen much discussion in the earnings call transcripts from others in terms of what jurisdictions are driving that. But for us, I can tell you where we see the increases in California.

Mark Hughes

Yes. Interesting. How about the audits in the quarter? Anything it tells you about the payrolls and then cancellations? Is there any kind of uptick in cancellations maybe related to more aggressive competition or shopping?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. I mean in terms of audit, year-over-year, the audit pickup combined with our change in accrual wasn't -- they were very close, so we're not seeing a huge change there. Our audit accrual currently stands at about $23 million, and we didn't make any change to that in the third quarter of '26. We're seeing a little bit of an uptick in noncompliance premium. We recognized about $2.3 million of that this quarter. So not seeing a ton of change in terms of audit. You also asked about cancellations. I would say our cancellations are relatively flat year-over-year also. We -- where we're seeing big increases are in our submissions and our quotes which would, to me, say that more agents are shopping business to try to get a better price or a higher commission. So that could be something that's going on that policyholders are canceling policies looking for better prices.

Mark Hughes

Yes. I'll ask one final question, if I might. The -- are you seeing much upward pressure on commissions? I think your reported commissions are -- looks like they're holding reasonably stable. I think maybe there's some nonrecurring stuff in the year ago quarter on commissions, if I understand it properly. But are you seeing brokers pushing and maybe that is impacting your win rate or hit rate on those quotes?

Katherine Antonello

I would say yes to all of that. In regard to our commission rate, you're absolutely correct. There was an adjustment that occurred in the third quarter of 2025 that -- so that 12% from a year ago may have been slightly lower than we would normally see. But in terms of the competitive environment, we are seeing continued pressure on commissions for new business. So I think that just comes with the territory of the softer market and carriers competing to keep their market share. We are not chasing that everywhere. We're looking for pockets where we can increase commission, where we feel like there's room in the margin to do so. But there is a lot of upward pressure on commissions right now.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Karol Chmiel with Citizens.

Karol Chmiel

Kathy, just to go back to what Mark was inquiring regarding the audit. I know there wasn't much change. But in the bigger picture, with the whole higher cost of living and now various states and counties and cities pushing for higher minimum wage, are you having any conversations with your clients as to audit issues maybe coming up in the future where companies are going to be doing more with less workers?

Katherine Antonello

Yes, it's a good question. It's something we keep an eye on in terms of just macroeconomic, the picture there. I can't say that we've had -- given our policyholder base and just the small accounts that we typically write, I don't know that we've had any specific conversations, but we do track the economic behavior of what that might impact our book of business. Not seeing anything right now that would change what I feel like is our audit pickup in the future. I will say it's nothing like what we were seeing, say, coming out of the pandemic when payrolls were just increasing at such a dramatic rate. Things are fairly stable now. And we're -- we see from month to month that: one month, we might have a pickup; the next month, we might have a return in total, but not a lot of movement there.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Barclays. This is Justin on for Alex.

Unknown Analyst

I wanted to revisit the topic of frequency. I understand the frequency outside of California continues to be trending lower for your book of business. I was just wondering if there are any particular, say, industries or claims types or even worker populations where you may be seeing some frequency pressures emerge or maybe the rate of frequency declines are not as pronounced as it has been before?

Katherine Antonello

Yes, it's a great question. I mean, for us, and I'm talking about our guaranteed cost workers' compensation book, the area where we're seeing the most elevated frequency and then over the last 2 to 3 years, the largest increase in frequency has been California cumulative trauma. So, I will say one of the things that -- one of our strategic moves to, sort of, give us more optionality was to move into the excess workers' compensation space, which will diversify our book of business and allow us to write larger insureds with self-insured retentions that might not be impacted by changes in frequency to the same extent that you would see in a small business guaranteed cost book.

So, for us, that move was intentional. So, for example, if I stick with California and CT, we just got approved to write excess workers' comp in California. We would not expect that future book to be impacted by frequency increases as much as it has impacted the guaranteed cost book. In terms of industries, I have not seen that there are increases in frequency. I've seen no research, and I haven't seen anything in our book that is showing anything in terms of the frequency is more -- the increase in frequency is more prevalent or the lack of a decrease is more prevalent in one industry versus another.

Unknown Analyst

Understood. And maybe a quick follow-up on a similar point. I think we've been hearing some discussion around sort of the rising cost of health care costs and sort of the affordability potentially affecting workers' claims comp behavior. So, sort of, like historically, maybe some claims that have been addressed in health care is now spilling over into workers' comp claims instead. I was wondering if this was something that you are seeing in your own book of business or if there's any sort of observations that you're seeing industry-wide that talks to this sort of observation?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. I mean I'll start with our book. When we look at our book overall, severity is very steady or lower. And we have early indications with accident year 2026 in states outside of California that we might have some pressure on severity, but that's almost -- that's entirely driven by a few large losses. So, I wouldn't call it a widespread severity trend. We have, for the last 5 or 6 years, developed our own pharmaceutical index that we continue to look at. And those costs are up slightly relative to what we were seeing pre-pandemic levels. We had a recent uptick that recovered most of the post-pandemic decline, but it's really pretty moderate. So, I have also heard what you've heard, sort of, out on the street, but we're not seeing anything in our book right now that would suggest it's impacting us.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Kathy Antonello for closing remarks.

Katherine Antonello

Okay. Thank you, Daniel, and thank you all for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking with you all again in February.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.