SG Morning Brief | SpaceX Crashes 16%, Russell 2000 Hits 3,000; Chips Hit New Record as Oil Falls to $74

US Overnight

The Nasdaq fell 1.32% to 26,166.60 and the S&P 500 declined 0.37% to 7,472.79 as Big Tech dragged the market lower. The Dow bucked the trend, gaining 148.01 points (+0.29%) to 51,712.71, led almost entirely by Caterpillar's 4% surge. The Russell 2000 closed above 3,000 for the first time in history, underscoring the "Great Rotation" from mega-cap tech into small caps, cyclicals, and value. WTI crude fell 2.79% to $73.73 and Brent dropped 2.15% to $78.12 after VP Vance announced that Iran has agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to re-enter the country — a "key milestone" toward permanent denuclearization. Gold retreated to just above $4,000, its lowest since March. Energy and real estate sectors each gained over 1%.

Key Movers

SpaceX (SPCX) -16% — SpaceX plunged 16.43% to $154.60, its third consecutive loss and a cumulative 20%+ decline from its post-IPO high. The stock is now within $5 of its $150 IPO debut price. The company announced its first investment-grade bond offering ($20B) on the same day, amplifying dilution fears. CNBC's Jim Cramer said SpaceX "could not maintain its meme status." Despite the selloff, SpaceX remains 15% above its $135 IPO price.

Google (GOOG) -5% — Alphabet fell over 5%, leading the Magnificent Seven lower, on concerns around AI talent departures and soaring AI capex. Amazon dropped 4.8%, Microsoft fell 3%, and Meta lost 2.3%. Tesla was the sole Mag 7 gainer, rising over 1%. CoreWeave, a newly added Nasdaq-100 member, fell nearly 6% on its first day in the index.

SOX +2% — new record, 3rd straight gain — The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bucked the broader selloff to close at a new all-time high. Micron gained nearly 7% after announcing a multi-year memory supply agreement with Anthropic, including a strategic investment in Anthropic's Series H round. SanDisk rose over 4%. Nvidia dipped nearly 1%, diverging from the broader chip rally.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070 recently. DBS is near S$62.18 and UOB near S$37.91. Oil at $74 is the most significant positive for Singapore in months — import costs are dropping fast, and inflation expectations should follow. The IAEA inspector agreement is the most tangible progress toward a lasting Iran deal since the war began. Banks face a mixed setup: lower oil eases inflation (negative for rate hike case), but the economy benefits from cheaper energy (positive for loan demand). The Russell 2000 hitting 3,000 signals money flowing into small caps — a global trend that could support mid-cap Singapore names.

Asia Pre-Market

Futures data was not yet available. WTI at $73.73 is the lowest since March, down 30% from its $106 May peak. Brent at $78.12 is approaching the $75 level that analysts have flagged as the point where gasoline falls below $3.50. The IAEA announcement overnight should keep risk appetite constructive for Asian markets. The Nasdaq-100 rebalance (Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius, Rocket Lab, Teradyne added) went into effect Monday, and Marvell joined the S&P 500.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

No major SG-relevant earnings today. Nvidia shareholder meeting is this week.

Data Spotlight: Oil trajectory — WTI has fallen from $106 to $74 in six weeks. If the IAEA access holds and Hormuz gradually reopens, analysts at Axi forecast oil stabilizing in the $68-75 range by Q3. At that level, June CPI could drop below 3.5% and the entire rate hike narrative evaporates before the September FOMC. The market is trading this outcome already — but the 60-day deal timeline means verification risk remains elevated through August.

One More Thing

Russell 2000 at 3,000. SpaceX at $155. These two numbers tell the story of June 2026. Small caps are hitting all-time highs because the real economy is healthy — jobs strong, consumer spending holding, oil falling. SpaceX is crashing because the speculative premium that powered its IPO cannot survive rising rates and dilutive bond offerings. The Great Rotation is not a temporary trade anymore — it is a structural repricing. Money is moving from $2 trillion rocket ships to $2 billion manufacturers, from AI hype to AI hardware, from mega-cap to mid-cap. Micron signing a supply deal with Anthropic while Alphabet loses AI talent in the same session captures the divergence perfectly. The question for the rest of 2026 is simple: does the rotation continue, or does Big Tech find a floor?

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.