6 Things Every Investor Should Know About This Market Before Buying Anything
Key Points
Stocks really are unusually expensive right now, but understandably so.
Technology companies have led an explosion of earnings growth and a widespread widening of profit margins.
The extreme profitability we’re seeing now isn’t guaranteed to be sustained.
The market's never exactly easy to navigate. But it's proving particularly tricky right now. Stocks have been soaring of late when they seemingly shouldn't be. There's no end in sight to the military conflict with Iran, either. Questions about the value of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks also continue to linger, along with a slew of other uncertainties. It's a lot to process.
If you're not quite sure what's next or what to do about it, gathering more information is always a smart next step. Here are six things you'll want to know about the stock market right now before doing anything else.
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1. Stocks are expensive
One concern has been lingering for a while now, but understandably so. That's the overall market's valuation. According to FactSet's latest projections, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is currently priced at nearly 22 times this year's projected per-share profits, and 19 times next year's anticipated earnings. In both cases, that's well above long-term norms. That's why so many investors are worried that there's little to no upside left to price in here.
2. The expensive valuations may be worth it
There's something curious about the market's profitability right now, however. That is, earnings aren't just growing. They're growing enormously! FactSet points out that with nearly one-third of the S&P 500's companies' (and almost all of its major companies') Q1 earnings reports in hand, it's seeing overall corporate profits up an incredible 27% year over year, setting a pace that's expected to persist all year. Next year's projected earnings growth of 14% isn't too shabby, either.
This is why most investors are willing to pay such a premium to own most stocks at this time, and why the market is willing to maintain such rich prices.
3. The technology sector is doing most of the work
It's no surprise that technology stocks are responsible for the lion's share of this amazing earnings growth. The eight biggest S&P 500 companies collectively account for more than one-third of its total value. These are technology companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, key users of technology that serve consumers like Alphabet or Apple, or both. Indeed, FactSet reports that the five companies making the biggest contributions to the S&P 500's Q1 earnings growth are technology outfits Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms, and Nvidia, led by memory maker Micron Technologies' incredible 582% year-over-year improvement in last quarter's per-share earnings.
This amazing earnings growth has, in turn, led to some amazing profit margin growth. As it stands right now, FactSet adds that 13.4% of last quarter's revenue is being converted into net income. That's a 15-year record.
4. However, technology stocks aren't leading
Given their underlying companies' growth firepower, you'd think technology stocks would be leading the marketwide bullish charge. But that hasn't been the case. Already priced at just over 26 times their forward-looking earnings (according to Yardeni Research), the tech-laden Magnificent Seven stocks may be valued about as richly as investors are willing to price them, regardless of their foreseeable growth.
The market leaders since the end of last year have been energy stocks, which are up more than 30% year to date for an obvious reason. That's the conflict in the Middle East, which has threatened the availability of oil, catapulting market prices for companies that can supply it. ExxonMobil's Q1 earnings were up 21%, for perspective, while BP's more than doubled year over year.
It doesn't look like oil prices are coming down any time soon, either, setting the stage for sustained extreme profitability for the sector.
5. It will be tough to maintain these profits and profit margins
Technology and energy stocks may be enjoying big profit growth and unusually wide profit margins, but they're not alone. Bank of America's net interest income growth of 9% led to a 17% improvement in Q1 net income on revenue growth of only 7% ... growth paces mirrored by Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. Amazon's consumer-facing e-commerce business saw operating income growth of more than 41% in North America and 40% everywhere else, despite measurably slower revenue growth and higher shipping expenses stemming from higher fuel costs.
Companies are testing their pricing power with customers and passing the test! People may not like paying higher prices, but so far, they're still doing so. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that March's domestic retail spending improved 1.7% from February's levels, and was up 4% year over year, improving 3.7% for the entirety of Q1.
Just don't presume this pricing power will persist indefinitely. People are already feeling pinched, and now they're starting to feel some more serious pain. Credit bureau TransUnion reports that loan delinquencies of 90 days (or more) grew another 10 basis points during Q1, reaching a new two-year high of 2.53% of the lending it monitors. Data from industry research outfit ATTOM indicates that U.S. nationwide foreclosures jumped 6% in Q1 versus fourth-quarter 2025 levels and were 26% higher than Q1 2025 levels. And that was before a slew of layoff announcements from Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and several others.
It's not like the corporate world is simply sidestepping headwinds, either. Defaults on low-grade bonds are starting to edge higher. Higher-quality investment-grade activity often follows if the economy slips into a tailspin.
6. Rate cuts aren't likely in the near future
So the Federal Reserve will act in time, right? Not necessarily.
Under normal circumstances, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) might cut interest rates to spur some economic activity. It doesn't really have this option right now, however. Inflation is already creeping higher, with the U.S.'s overall annualized consumer inflation rate moving up to a two-year high of 3.3% in March. It's even worse for the U.S.'s factories, assemblers, and wholesale processors, which saw their costs jump 4% in March.
Lowering interest rates from here could really let inflation soar, doing more damage to the economy than current circumstances already are. That's why the Fed doesn't anticipate any rate cuts until next year at the earliest, with only modest interest rate cuts in the cards through 2028.
Investors need some perspective
On a net basis, things seem more bearish than bullish. Be careful of coming to such a sweeping, decisive conclusion, though. Things are also moving -- and changing -- very quickly. While you don't necessarily need to take action with your portfolio every day, you will want to keep daily tabs on the market's headlines for the foreseeable future. If something doesn't change soon, it may well merit more defensive posturing with your stocks. We're not quite there yet, however.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. James Brumley has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, FactSet Research Systems, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, Nvidia, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends BP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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