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SpaceX Listing Countdown: IPO Priced at $135, Prediction Markets Feverishly Bet on $150-$200 Opening

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AuthorBlock Tao

Jun 12, 2026 12:04 PM

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SpaceX's IPO has seen its official trading start delayed by 30 minutes to 9:50 AM ET, June 12, due to intense prediction market activity. Markets anticipate an opening price between $150-$200, significantly above the IPO price of $135 per share. This higher valuation is supported by pre-market trading and derivatives data, with some projections placing market capitalization around $2.4 trillion. The company is raising $75 billion, with underwriters expected to manually adjust the matching pool, a process that could impact the initial trading window.

AI-generated summary

TradingKey - SpaceX's official trading start time has been delayed by half an hour, as prediction markets bet on a high opening for SPCX on its first day, with an opening price range of $150-$200.

On June 12, Eastern Time, Elon Musk's space technology company SpaceX (SPCX) is set to debut on the Nasdaq. In the pre-market session, prediction markets are betting heavily on its opening price. According to data from Polymarket, the probability of SpaceX opening between $150 and $200 has surged by over 33%, currently reaching 83%.

Spacex-ipo-441114d951b743bda493623b4366196d User bets on SpaceX's opening price, Source: Polymarket

Yesterday, after the market close, SpaceX officially confirmed its IPO price at $135 per share, with a valuation reaching $1.75 trillion to $1.78 trillion, breaking Saudi Aramco's record to become the largest IPO in history. However, judging from current market reactions, the official price may still be too conservative.

According to Binance and Hyperliquid 's market data, SpaceX perpetual contracts reached a high of $185 today and are currently hovering around $177, 30%-37% higher than the official pricing. Additionally, the shadow market indicates a premium of at least 35% for SpaceX shares, with derivatives from online broker IG International pointing to a market capitalization of $2.4 trillion, over 35% higher than the $1.77 trillion valuation based on the IPO price.

spacex-spcx-price-3c05045def3d40dd8fba7ebf09f0e792 SpaceX perpetual contract prices, Source: TradingView

For a 'historic behemoth' like SpaceX, which is raising $75 billion, underwriters need to manually adjust the matching pool after the opening, potentially delaying the first trade by about half an hour, similar to the debuts of Meta and Alibaba. Thus, the opening price may not flash at exactly 9:30 AM ET. According to Investing.com, SpaceX IPO quotes will begin at 9:50 AM ET, with trading eligibility starting at 10:00 AM ET.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely represents the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the official stance of Tradingkey. It should not be considered as investment advice. The article is intended for reference purposes only, and readers should not base any investment decisions solely on its content. Tradingkey bears no responsibility for any trading outcomes resulting from reliance on this article. Furthermore, Tradingkey cannot guarantee the accuracy of the article's content. Before making any investment decisions, it is advisable to consult an independent financial advisor to fully understand the associated risks.

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