2 Things Every Lucid (LCID) Investor Needs to Know
Key Points
Lucid is struggling to scale its business while reducing expenses.
Its overwhelming dependence on Saudi Arabia is a double-edged sword.
Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), a producer of luxury electric vehicles (EVs), went public on July 26, 2021, through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Its stock opened at $25.24 per share, soared to a post-merger high of $57.75 that November, but now trades at about $9. If you're considering buying it as a turnaround play, keep these two things in mind.
Image source: Lucid.
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1. It's still struggling to ramp up its production
Lucid's market debut attracted lots of attention because it was led by Peter Rawlinson, Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) former chief vehicle engineer. In its pre-merger presentation, it claimed it could deliver 20,000 vehicles in 2022, 49,000 in 2023, and 90,000 in 2024. Its first vehicle was the Air sedan, and it planned to launch its second vehicle, the Gravity SUV, in 2023.
But in reality, it only delivered 4,369 vehicles in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024. It postponed the Gravity's launch from late 2023 to late 2024, and Rawlinson stepped down in 2025. On the bright side, its deliveries rose 55% to 15,841 vehicles in 2025 as it ramped up its production of the Gravity, and it expects to produce 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles in 2026.
That outlook is encouraging, but it would merely make it comparable to Tesla in 2013, when the current EV leader only delivered 22,477 vehicles. Tesla successfully scaled its business and delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, but it had a first-mover advantage, faced fewer competitors, and benefited from generous government subsidies. Lucid, which arrived much later and doesn't enjoy the same advantages, probably can't match that growth trajectory.
Tesla only generated its first annual profit in 2020, when it delivered 499,550 vehicles, and economies of scale finally kicked in. Therefore, Lucid will continue to bleed red ink as it struggles to scale its business.
2. It's heavily dependent on Saudi Arabian investors
The Saudi Arabian government's Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns more than 60% of Lucid's outstanding shares. The Saudi Arabian government also placed a 10-year order for 100,000 of its vehicles in 2022, and it heavily funded its second AMP-2 plant in Saudi Arabia in 2023.
Lucid expects AMP-2, along with the expansion of its first AMP-1 plant in Arizona, to support the production of more Gravity SUVs and the rollout of its next vehicle -- the more affordable "Earth" SUV -- in late 2026 or early 2027. However, Iran's recent drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states could significantly impact those plans.
Lucid's stock is cheap for obvious reasons
With an enterprise value of $5.2 billion, Lucid might seem like a bargain at 2.3 times this year's sales. But unless it successfully scales up its business, narrows its losses, and reduces its dependence on Saudi Arabian investors, it will continue trading at that steep discount.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
