GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks slide as Gulf oil supply fears rattle markets

By Harry Robertson

LONDON, March 6 (Reuters) - European stocks and U.S. futures tumbled on Friday as the U.S.-Iran war drove fresh concerns about oil supplies, prompting traders to wind in their bets on interest rate cuts and fret about the impact on the global economy.

Benchmark global and U.S. oil prices hit their highest levels in almost two years as U.S. Treasuries fell for the fifth day in a row. Global stocks headed for their biggest weekly drop in a year.

Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 ESc1 fell 0.62% while Nasdaq futures NQc1 dropped 0.75%.

Europe's STOXX 600 .STOXX index dropped 1.04% in choppy trading, undoing an earlier rise of almost 0.5% as oil prices appeared to stabilise.

QATAR WARNS OF DRAMATIC IMPACT ON ENERGY MARKETS

Qatar expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks and drive oil prices to $150 a barrel, wreaking extensive economic damage, the country's energy minister told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday.

"The warning from Qatar's energy minister that a prolonged conflict could bring down economies around the world has again rattled financial markets," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.

U.S. crude CLc1 oil prices jumped more than 5% to $86.22 a barrel, the highest since April 2024.

Brent crude LCOc1 also rose to its highest in nearly two years at $89.48 a barrel. It was on track for a 23% weekly jump, the largest such increase since the COVID-19 crisis rocked the global economy in 2020.

TRADERS SLASH RATE CUT BETS

Money market traders who bet on interest rates are now predicting around 30 to 35 basis points (bps) of reductions from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, down from roughly 55 bps a week ago.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR rose 3 bps on Friday to 4.173% and were on track for a weekly increase of 21 bps, the largest move since April 2025.

The biggest impact of fears over energy supplies was felt in Europe, however, which is far more reliant on oil and gas imports.

Traders now think the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by the end of the year, after scrubbing out previous bets on a cut.

They now see a roughly 50% chance of one Bank of England rate cut this year, after betting on two cuts in February, hitting British bond markets hard on Friday.

"Oil is firmly in the driving seat, with moves feeding straight through into inflation expectations and the rate outlook," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"We’d expect volatility to remain elevated while that uncertainty persists."

STOCKS SLIDE AS DOLLAR GAINS

The conflict in the Middle East convulsed global markets this week and left investors seeking the safety of cash, as they sobered up to the fact that the war could drag on longer than initially anticipated.

The dollar index =USD, which tracks the currency against six peers, rose 0.33% on Friday and was on track for a 1.8% weekly increase, the most since September 2024.

The MSCI all-world stock index .MIWD00000PUS was set to drop 2.9% in the biggest weekly fall since March 2025.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.3% and was set to fall 6.6% for the week, its steepest weekly drop since March 2020.

Potentially market-moving U.S. data, including non-farm payrolls, is due at 1330 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET).

Spot gold XAU= was little changed at $5,086 an ounce, though it was headed for a 3% weekly fall.