Perfume sales thrive as U.S. beauty brands struggle with sluggish demand in 2025

U.S. beauty sector remained under pressure in 2025 due to tariff-led uncertainty, while focus on prestige brands and younger shoppers revived performance of cosmetics maker Estee Lauder EL.N and retailer Ulta Beauty ULTA.O

Coty COTY.N, Elf Beauty ELF.N and Bath & Body Works BBWI.N logged the biggest decline since 2018

COTY grappled with slowing demand for its products and rising competition; it also plans on selling its cosmetics business to focus on more profitable fragrance segment, also faces leadership changes

Elf Beauty struggled with tariff uncertainty, as about 75% of the cosmetics maker’s global production comes from China

Ulta Beauty up ~39% this year, driven by steady demand from younger shoppers for its affordable, trendy offerings and celebrity-owned brands

Luxury beauty brand Estee Lauder shares climbed this year driven by its turnaround efforts focused on strong fragrance sales, improving China demand and supply-chain shifts

Analysts at Jefferies expect "Still, beauty spending is expected to top 2025 levels next year, driven by demand for prestige brands, Jefferies analysts write in a note

Brokerage also expects the industry to focus on makeup after several years of fragrance taking centerstage

 S&P 500 Personal Care Products industry sub-index .SPLRCPEPR down 0.7% YTD, while broader S&P 500 .SPX is up 17.3%