ChatGPT's Revenue Growth Stagnates in Europe: Is This the Tipping Point for the AI Boom?

TradingKey - Despite the continued rise in ChatGPT user numbers, the growth of the paid market in Europe has come to a standstill.

Deutsche Bank's latest report reveals that since May this year, subscription spending on ChatGPT in major European markets has plateaued, suggesting that the growth of paid users in Europe may have peaked.

The bank notes that data from July and August 2024 also indicates a similar slowdown. However, unlike this period, June 2024 saw strong spending and September showed a marked recovery. This seasonal slowdown is attributed to decreased usage by students during summer holidays.

In contrast, no rebound was observed during the same period in 2025, leading Deutsche Bank to suggest that the growth stagnation may be structural rather than seasonal.

Though the European market data comes from only five major countries, Deutsche Bank asserts that the current stagnation should not be underestimated.

Additional data highlights OpenAI's current challenges. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced last week that ChatGPT now has over 800 million weekly active users, but Deutsche Bank points out that as of April this year, there were only 20 million paying users. This suggests an issue with user retention and conversion of ongoing value into paying customers.

Deutsche Bank states that one of the core contradictions facing today's AI industry is the widening gap between technological impact and commercial profitability, and OpenAI is no exception.

Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid comments that the real challenge for OpenAI lies not in its algorithms but in its business model, the path to profitability remains unclear.

Among companies with similar market valuations, OpenAI underperforms in terms of revenue. Netflix's market value is comparable to OpenAI's estimated valuation, both around $500 billion. Netflix boasts 300 million global subscribers and is expected to generate $45 billion in revenue this year, with a price-to-sales ratio of 12.5 times. OpenAI's revenue for the first half of the year was $4.3 billion, with a forecast of $13 billion for the full year.

OpenAI's revenue even falls short compared to Spotify, which has a market value of only $140 billion. Spotify has 276 million paying users and is expected to generate over $17 billion in revenue by 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio of 7.3 times.

Deutsche Bank emphasizes that ChatGPT's real challenge is turning its massive traffic into stable paying users, as technological advances do not automatically translate into profits. This may mark the true turning point of the artificial intelligence bubble.

In addition to subscription fees, OpenAI has considered other potential revenue streams, such as charging commissions through e-commerce integrations with ChatGPT or placing advertisements. However, no concrete plans have been finalized. Analysts believe that given OpenAI's dominance in the generative AI tools market with 80% of the traffic, its immense market influence still warrants an optimistic outlook for its future.