Prediction: Lucid Group Sales Will Soar 211% Over the Next 18 Months if This Happens

Key Points

• Analysts expect big growth from Lucid in 2025 and 2026.

• One critical growth catalyst is fueling these predictions.

• 10 stocks we like better than Lucid Group ›

Wall Street analysts appear very bullish on Lucid Group's (NASDAQ: LCID) ability to boost sales over the next 18 months. This fiscal year, sales are expected to rise by 61%. Next year, another 93% growth in revenue is expected. In total, that means sales could jump by 211% in under two years.

Why are sales expected to rise so much? And does this rapid sales growth make the stock a buy?

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You may be surprised by the answer to these questions.

The Lucid Air sedan was introduced in 2022. Image source: Lucid Group.

Lucid Group is betting big on this growth catalyst

In 2016, Lucid announced its first vehicle to begin production: a luxury sedan named the Lucid Air. It took until 2021 for production to actually begin. Initially, these vehicles cost between $140,000 and $170,000. But over time, the price gradually dropped. Today, the Lucid Air starts at around $70,000 -- though certain trims and options can increase this cost to nearly $250,000.

This has been the trouble with Lucid as a company. Sales have grown considerably since the launch of the Lucid Air. But that launch occurred nearly four years ago, and since then, the selling price of this model has trended lower and lower. Competition, meanwhile, has increased immensely, with many other EV companies launching new models and options.

Put simply, Lucid has focused on a single model for years while the competition has continued to expand and diversify. From the start of 2023 through the summer of 2024, Lucid sales were essentially flat.

By the end of 2024, however, revenue was back on the rise, reaching new all-time highs. Now, analysts are expecting heavy growth through the rest of this year and 2026. What changed? The introduction of a new model: the Lucid Gravity.

As a category, sedans have seen a sharp decline in popularity in recent decades in the U.S. The Lucid Gravity, however, is an SUV: one of the most popular types of vehicles today. With its lineup options now doubled, including the addition of a critical vehicle form factor, Lucid's sales should grow heavily over the next 18 months. But does that make the stock a buy?

The 2025 Lucid Gravity SUV. Image source: Lucid Group.

Is Lucid stock a buy due to high expected sales growth?

Lucid's rollout for its Gravity SUV has already had setbacks. The company faced immediate production issues, creating problems for buyers looking to purchase certain models online. This causes analysts to continually lower their growth expectations for 2025, even though their longer-term projections remained relatively rosy.

Once production issues are fully resolved, expect sales to grow by double-digit percentages each quarter as analysts expect. There's just one problem: the Lucid Gravity still starts at a price of nearly $80,000, though the company will likely first complete orders of higher-end versions that can easily cost more than $100,000. This hefty price tag will structurally limit the vehicle's popularity.

A look at Tesla's Model X -- a luxury SUV very similar to the Lucid Gravity -- reveals how limited Lucid's market is for this vehicle. Last year, Tesla sold roughly 1.22 million Model Ys and nearly 500,000 Model 3s. Those vehicles have starting prices under $50,000. The Model X, meanwhile, sold roughly 38,000 units globally.

Note, also, that Tesla's Model X has been on the market for nearly a decade, giving Tesla plenty of time to scale production, market share, and delivery infrastructure. In 2015, the first year of Tesla's Model X sales, only 214 units were sold. The second year, around 23,000 units were sold. That means from 2017 to 2024, Tesla's Model X deliveries grew by less than 100%.

Tesla understood that getting affordable vehicles to market was key to its growth. Lucid, however, is still several years away from producing a vehicle like the Model Y or Model 3. So while growth will be impressive in 2025 and 2026, the company is a long way away from replicating Tesla's rise.

With shares trading at 7.3 times sales, Lucid stock looks too expensive despite the expected near-term growth.

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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.