EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm assets fall as traders assess latest data; US jobs data awaited
By Pranav Kashyap
Sept 1 (Reuters) - Latin American assets gave up early gains and traded lower on Monday, with investors turning cautious as they assessed local indicators and awaited U.S. labor data this week that could guide global monetary policy.
The MSCI gauge for Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS fell 0.3%. A parallel gauge for currencies .MILA00000CUS lost 0.19%.
Brazilian equities .BVSP fell 0.25%, on course to snap their three-day streak of gains, and the real currency BRL= lost 0.27% after the contraction in Brazil's manufacturing sector deepened in August, PMI data showed, as U.S. tariffs and tight domestic policy weighed on industrial activity.
The data precede Tuesday's second-quarter GDP report, which is expected to show growth slowing to 0.3% from 1.4% in the first quarter due to a pullback in farm output and softer industrial production.
The estimates indicate that a restrictive monetary policy, aimed at cooling inflationary pressures in Latin America's No. 1 economy, was beginning to weigh.
Meanwhile, the dollar index =USD hit a five-week low as investors looked ahead to a raft of U.S. labor reports due this week, particularly non-farm payrolls numbers.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in around a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve later in September.
"We have seen softening but not a collapsing U.S. economy," said Andres Abadia, chief LatAm economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, but he noted that markets are grappling with uncertainty over the Fed's future leadership and whether that could translate into a more dovish policy stance.
"Everything that happens in the U.S. economy has a collateral effect on Latin economies."
Mexico's peso MXN= was trading flat against the dollar, while the country's main index .MXX steadied after data showed Mexico's manufacturing activity expanded in August, its first expansion in over a year.
Trading volumes were lighter than usual due to a U.S. holiday.
Chilean stocks .SPIPSA rose 0.22% after data showed the country's economic activity rose 1.8% in July, in line with market forecasts.
Fresh figures come as traders weigh the central bank's next move following an upside surprise in inflation. With July inflation overshooting and the annual rate drifting further from the 2%–4% target, attention shifts to the September 9 policy decision. The local peso CLP= fell 0.22% on Monday.
The Colombian peso COP= lost 0.22%, while stocks in Bogota .COLCAP were flat. The country reports its inflation figures on Friday.
Peru's sol PEN= dipped about 0.1% as monthly consumer price inflation fell 0.29% in August for the Lima metropolitan area.
Stocks in Argentina .MERV dropped 2.5% to a near five-month low, taking their yearly decline to over 22% so far. The peso ARS=RASL fell about 2%.
Elsewhere, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that members of the 10-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation should sell joint bonds.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Stock indexes | Latest | Daily % change |
|
| |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1266.57 | 0.65 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2392.63 | -0.3 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 141065.92 | -0.25 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 58714.93 | 0.01 |
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA | 8919.58 | 0.22 |
Argentina MerVal .MERV | 1934606.14 | -2.53 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 1845.09 | -0.03 |
| ||
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real BRL= | 5.4444 | -0.27 |
Mexico peso MXN= | 18.6473 | -0.03 |
Chile peso CLP= | 968.09 | -0.22 |
Colombia peso COP= | 4016.3 | -0.22 |
Peru sol PEN= | 3.5346 | -0.08 |
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL | 1,375.5 | -1.96 |
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= | 1,350.0 | -0.37 |
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