U.S. July PCE and GDP Data Due as Nvidia Earnings Take Center Stage【The week ahead】

TradingKey - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish hints on potential rate cuts sparked a market rally, sending all three major U.S. stock indexes higher last Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, while the S&P 500 snapped a five-day losing streak.

This week, investors will focus on key U.S. economic data, including the July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, second-quarter GDP, and July durable goods orders. On the technology front, Nvidia is set to unveil its new "brain" for robotics—an advanced AI platform expected to further shape the future of intelligent machines.

In earnings news, reports from Nvidia, Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Luxshare Precision, New H3C, and Zhongji Xuchuang will be closely watched. Nvidia’s results, in particular, are seen as a litmus test for the broader AI trade. If the company misses expectations, it could reignite a sell-off in tech stocks.

Preview of major events

U.S. July PCE Price Index Seen as Key Factor for Fed’s September Rate Decision

On August 29, the U.S. released the July PCE Price Index, highlighting renewed inflationary pressures in the services sector and the growing impact of tariffs. The year-over-year PCE inflation rate came in at 2.6% in June, above the 2.5% forecast and with the prior month’s reading revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3%. The month-over-month increase held steady at 0.3%, in line with expectations.

At the same time, consumer spending showed signs of weakness. Real, inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures rose just 0.1% in June—matching expectations but failing to reverse the prior month’s decline.

Citi analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is proving to be slower and more persistent than the market anticipated. August and September will be a critical window for confirming this trend. They project the PCE price index could reach 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

U.S. Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rate (Revised)

Last month’s initial release showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter after adjusting for inflation, reversing the first-quarter contraction and significantly surpassing the market consensus of 2.6%.

In a recent research note, UBS forecast that U.S. GDP growth will sharply decelerate from a 2.0% annualized pace in Q2 to just 0.9% by the fourth quarter—below the economist consensus estimate of 1.0%. However, UBS also highlighted in the report that while upside risks to the economy remain, the trend of economic slowing is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid.

Nvidia to Report Latest Earnings on Wednesday, with Q3 Guidance in the Spotlight

Nvidia is set to report its latest earnings on Wednesday, with the company’s guidance for the third quarter expected to be the main focus for markets. Currently, the consensus forecast calls for revenue of $45.92 billion and earnings per share of $1.01.

A recent report from KeyBanc Capital Markets indicates that Nvidia may temporarily exclude direct revenue from the Chinese market in its outlook for the next fiscal quarter, as the timing of U.S. export license approvals remains uncertain amid ongoing semiconductor export restrictions. KeyBanc analysts noted that including China-related business based on chips such as the H20 and RTX6000D (B40) could have added $2 billion to $3 billion in incremental revenue.

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday: U.S. July Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month

Thursday: U.S. Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rate (Revised)

Friday: U.S. July Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year

This week's featured events

Tuesday: John Williams, FOMC Permanent Voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivers a speech

Thursday: European Central Bank releases the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting

Friday: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks on monetary policy

Company Financial Report

U.S. Stocks

Monday: PDD Holdings (PDD.O)

Wednesday: Nvidia (NVDA.O), HP Inc. (HPQ.N)

Thursday: Dell Technologies (DELL.N), Marvell Technology (MRVL.O)

Hong Kong Stocks

Tuesday: Ping An Insurance (Group) of China (02318.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (00857.HK)

Wednesday: China Life Insurance Company (02628.HK), Meituan (03690.HK), CNOOC Limited (00883.HK)

Thursday: ZTE Corporation (00763.HK), China Southern Airlines Company Limited (01055.HK)

Friday: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK), BYD Company Limited (01211.HK), China Merchants Bank (03968.HK)