LIVE MARKETS-Definitely maybe an Oasis impact on British inflation

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DEFINITELY MAYBE AN OASIS IMPACT ON BRITISH INFLATION

Analysts trying to forecast next week's British July inflation data have had to incorporate British band Oasis' reunion tour into their models, just one more factor making their life difficult.

The Office for National Statistics won't be including their ticket prices in the basket, say Morgan Stanley as the ONS says it "excludes big-name’ bands with highly distinctive and unique abilities to charge diverse prices."

Where it matters is hotels, and analysts reckon the crucial index collection day will be 15 July, one day before an Oasis concert in Manchester.

Deutsche Bank reckon this will have a meaningful impact and their "Hotel Price Tracker points to a near 9% m-o-m rise, with the Oasis concerts having a strong impact on Manchester prices alone."

MS are not so sure, citing data from hotel data firm STR, they say the weekends saw the biggest spike in hotel prices, and see a 1.5% monthly increase in accommodation prices.

But they "brace for a more "supersonic" (ha-ha) increase in August, when Edinburgh hotels prices surged as the Fringe festival clashed with Oasis concerts."

As for the bigger numbers these aren't expected to be particularly pretty for the Bank of England. Deutsche sees headline CPI running at 3.8% year on year. MS, at 3.7%.

(Alun John)

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