LIVE MARKETS-Buyers beware

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BUYERS BEWARE

While July has typically been a strong month for global shares in recent history, the coming months - August, September and October - often have some of the worst returns.

Since 2020, the STOXX 600 .STOXX has fallen on average 0.38% in August, 2.72% in September and 0.28% in October.

It's similar for the S&P 500 .SPX, with August and September typically two of the worst performing months.

(Five-year average and monthly return for Europe's STOXX 600. Source: LSEG Data)

Jefferies believes it might be time to cash out, having been constructive on risky assets in recent months.

"Over the past couple of months, we have argued for a constructive stance, but with the view that we could see some market wobbles in August," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says.

"We are sticking to our view and would be taking some chips off the table this week going into the US payroll report."

RBC Capital Markets equity strategists are also aware of the typically weak performance in the August-October period and think the impact of Trump's tariffs might soon start to be felt by U.S. companies, based on their analysis of company transcripts.

"Zooming out, we continue to worry based on what we've read that tariff impacts may show up more acutely this fall, at a time when U.S. equity markets have tended to be weak in recent years from a seasonal perspective," RBC says.

"We think the real test for tariff impacts is 2H, and perhaps even early 2026, but not 2Q25."

(Samuel Indyk)

MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

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