LIVE MARKETS-Individual investor bulls and bears crisscross - AAII

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BULLS AND BEARS CRISSCROSS - AAII

Individual investor optimism over the short-term outlook for U.S. stocks increased slightly in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey. With this, pessimism retreated, while neutral sentiment gained.

This is the first time in 16 weeks that there were more bulls than bears.

More than a third of investors surveyed described the updated earnings guidance given by companies during first-quarter 2025 earnings season as "as approximately what I expected."

AAII reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, added 1.8 percentage points to 37.7%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time in 16 weeks and is above 30% for only the seventh time this year. Bullish sentiment was last higher on January 30, 2025 (41.0%).

Bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 7.7 percentage points to 36.7%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 25th time in 27 weeks. Bearish sentiment was last lower on January 30, 2025 (34.0%).

Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 5.9 percentage points to 25.6%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 44th time in 46 weeks.

With these changes, the bull-bear spread gained 9.5 percentage points to +1.0%. The bull-bear spread is in positive territory for the first time in 16 weeks.

In this week's special question AAII asked its members how they would describe the updated company earnings guidance given during the Q1 2025 earnings season.

Here is AAII's graphic showing how they responded:

(Terence Gabriel)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

GLITCH OR TREND? NEW HOME SALES JUMP UNEXPECTEDLY IN APRIL CLICK HERE

WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS: FRESH TRUMP TARIFF TANTRUM SENDS STOCKS TUMBLING CLICK HERE

NASDAQ COMPOSITE GAP MAY BECKON AFTER LATEST TRUMP TARIFF SALVOS CLICK HERE

MARKET UPDATE: EUROPEAN SHARES TUMBLE AS TRUMP TAKES AIM AT EU CLICK HERE

EUROPEAN STOCKS PREFERRED, BUT NOT THE TIME TO ADD RISK - PICTET WM CLICK HERE

GERMAN SPENDING SPLURGE MOVING FURTHER AWAY CLICK HERE

RISING BOND YIELDS: IMPACT ON EQUITIES CLICK HERE

STOXX 600 ADVANCES, HEADS FOR WEEKLY RISE CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPE STEADY, EYES ON BOND YIELDS CLICK HERE

BOND MARKETS IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT CLICK HERE