BNP Paribas Exane cuts NN to 'neutral'; expects slower growth of capital generation

BNP Paribas Exane downgrades Dutch insurer Nationale-Nederlanden NN.AS to "neutral" from "outperform", saying it expects slower growth of organic capital and free cash flow

"We expect NN's capital markets day on 27 May will set OCG and FCF targets of 2.1 billion euros, and 1.8 billion for 2028, respectively," analysts say in a research note, highlighting that those expectations imply significantly lower growth rates than seen in the last eight years

They add that drivers of capital generation looked "unrepeatable" to those in the recent years

"Looking at the drivers... we see many as unlikely to repeat. Benefits from Strategic Asset Allocation changes may become headwinds... Non-life margins have limited scope for improvement... overall opportunities outside of Europe appear limited"

On the other hand, Exane sees possibility for the insurer to return more capital to shareholders, pointing to option where the company reduces importance of sustainable solvency ratio level and focuses on returning more of its free cashflow

Out of 17 analysts that cover NN Group, eight rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy," ​seven rate "hold", and two​ rate it "strong sell" or "sell"