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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, currencies rise with trade talks, Turkey's rate decision due

ReutersApr 17, 2025 9:43 AM
  • EM stocks up 0.8%; FX up 0.3%
  • Turkey's central bank decision due at 1100 GMT
  • Ukraine, U.S. closer to signing minerals deal
  • India eyes ending import tax on US ethane, LPG in trade talks

By Pranav Kashyap and Johann M Cherian

- Emerging market currencies and stocks edged higher on Thursday, as investors assessed trade negotiations with the White House while awaiting the Turkish central bank's policy decision.

The MSCI emerging markets index .MSCIEF edged up 0.8% and a currencies gauge .MIEM00000CUS rose 0.2% in a holiday-shortened week.

Both indexes were poised to snap three-week losing streaks as investors hoped for positive outcomes from tariff negotiations with the U.S. after President Donald Trump temporarily paused steep tariffs on world economies last week.

In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI closed 1.6% higher, South Korea's Kospi .KS11 was up nearly 1%, and India's Nifty 50 .NSEI rose 1.8%.

The broader index tracking central and eastern European stocks .MIME00000PUS gained 1.3%.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed higher after a positive end to a first round of closely monitored trade talks with Washington.

Other developing economies in Southeast Asia are also looking to seal deals, while sources said India plans to end taxes on U.S. ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports.

Concerns still linger over the situation with China, where China and the U.S. were at an impasse over who should start trade talks.

Trump maintained tariffs on Beijing, with traders growing anxious about the escalating trade war tipping the global economy into recession.

The Turkish lira TRYTOM=D3 held steady against the U.S. dollar, while its benchmark index .XU100 climbed 1.4%, ahead of its central bank's monetary policy decision.

"We still like the lira as a carry trade and it is the March move in the currency that gives the central bank the resolve to maintain only slow depreciation and not allow additional inflationary pressures, keeping the currency attractive to investors," said Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & FI Strategist at ING.

Turkey's central bank is expected to announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT. The consensus is for a pause in its easing cycle, maintaining the policy rate at 42.5%, a move likely aimed at stabilising the lira and controlling inflation.

Turkish assets have been hammered due to the political instability in the country. The lira plummeted to a record low, following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, triggering the central bank to intervene in late March to stabilise the currency.

Interest rate decisions are also due in Ukraine and Egypt. The Egyptian pound EGP= firmed 0.6%.

Ukraine said the country and the U.S. have made "substantial progress" in talks on a minerals deal and will sign a memorandum in the near future, even as Kyiv accuses Russia of not standing by the ceasefire on energy infrastructure.

Kyiv's dollar bonds and the hryvnia EURUAH= were flat against the euro, while the rouble RUB= appreciated 1.6% against the dollar, tracking higher crude prices.

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