LIVE MARKETS-Humpty Dumpty has fallen, but hard data doesn't yet show it

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HUMPTY DUMPTY HAS FALLEN, BUT HARD DATA DOESN'T YET SHOW IT

Global currency markets clearly think tariffs will cause damage to the U.S. economy. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen don't strengthen by as much as they've done in the past couple of weeks if they don't, nor does the dollar weaken that much.

The problem is, as Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale puts it in a Tuesday note: "We are waiting for economic data to catch up with markets and confirm, or challenge, the moves we have seen."

"Today has thrown up UK labour market data that we can’t rely on to tell us how the jobs market is going... We have also seen a very soft ZEW survey (of financial market professionals), and this afternoon we get Canadian CPI, US import prices and the US Empire Manufacturing survey."

"None of that will confirm my suspicion that Humpty Dumpty has indeed fallen off his wall," Juckes writes.

"Tomorrow’s US retail sales and industrial production data may tell us a bit more, or it may still be too soon to expect political chaos to be affecting the data."

(Alun John)

EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS

EUROPE INC EARNINGS: "RISKS TO THE DOWNSIDE" CLICK HERE

BARCLAYS RECOMMENDS LONG 5-YEAR US TREASURIES CLICK HERE

BOUNCING BACK CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: LVMH EARNINGS WREST FOCUS FROM TARIFFS CLICK HERE

MORNING BID: TAXES AND TARIFFS ON THE MIND AS RELIEF RALLY LIMPS ALONG: CLICK HERE