LIVE MARKETS-Don't forget about payrolls

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DON'T FORGET ABOUT PAYROLLS

While all eyes, understandably, have been on Trump's tariffs this week, markets have one more key risk event to come: the U.S. jobs report.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the U.S. to have added 135,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, down from the 151,000 added in February. Estimates range from a low of 50,000 (KPMG) to a high of 185,000 (Bank of America).

BofA is expecting "some payback" in leisure and hospitality jobs that were lost in January and February on cold weather, while they expect "minimal" impact from DOGE cuts so far.

KPMG are of a different view.

"We know that at least 24,000 federal workers were laid off due to their probationary status and may have not been on federal payrolls through March 12 in order to be counted as employed during the month," they write.

"Over time, we tend to lose two private sector workers for every federal job cut due to spillover effects on contractors and the ecosystem of communities."

So what does it mean for the Fed?

RBC BlueBay Asset Management chief investment officer Mark Dowding believes the Fed will be on hold "for the foreseeable futures" as long as there is not a large rise in unemployment, which could trigger recession fears.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

(Samuel Indyk)

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