Rivian Jumped Today -- Is the EV Stock a Buy?

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock saw substantial gains in Thursday's trading. The electric vehicle (EV) specialist's share price ended the session up 6.6% in a day that saw the S&P 500 index rise 1% and the Nasdaq Composite index rally 1.5%.

Rivian's valuation gained ground today following news that the State Department's procurement forecast for 2025 included plans for spending on EVs. The document initially included a category titled "Armored Electric Vehicles," although this was later changed to "Armored Vehicle Services."

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Notably, the procurement document initially indicated that Tesla was on track to receive a $400 million contract for armored EVs. But the listing was subsequently removed, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk said there were no plans for his company to receive the government contract. Some investors may be betting that Rivian could wind up receiving the deal in its place -- or simply that the Trump administration will be more helpful to the EV industry than previously anticipated.

Is Rivian stock a buy?

In its third-quarter results posted in November, Rivian recorded a net loss of $1.1 billion on revenue of $874 million. As the performance suggests, the company is still losing substantial money on each vehicle it sells.

To improve its margins and move closer to profitability, Rivian will need to achieve better economies of scale. This hinges on increasing production and adoption of its vehicles so it can take advantage of manufacturing efficiencies that allow it to lower costs and achieve better unit economics.

With its most recent production update, the company revealed it had produced 49,476 vehicles and delivered 51,579 in 2024. For comparison, it produced 57,232 vehicles and delivered 50,122 in 2023. With losses mounting and growth stalling recently, the company's share price has fallen 18.5% over the last year -- and it's down approximately 87% from market close on the day of its initial public offering in 2021.

While performance may improve this year, the company is clearly years from achieving profitability, even in optimistic scenarios. Despite the recent State Department procurement document, signs generally point to the Trump administration creating a less favorable backdrop for EVs. And demand in the category was softening even before Trump returned to the White House.

On the other hand, the launch of the company's new vehicle platforms and software partnerships may significantly improve the business's performance. For risk-tolerant investors who see promise in Rivian's vehicles, buying shares at today's prices could be a fine move as part of a larger dollar-cost averaging strategy. But for those looking to minimize risk, I'd wait for a pullback before jumping in.

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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.