LIVE MARKETS-Tuesday's data disappoints: Consumer confidence, durable goods, home prices

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TUESDAY'S DATA DISAPPOINTS: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, DURABLE GOODS, HOME PRICES

A trio of economic reports were released on Tuesday, none of which provided much reason to celebrate, on the surface of things.

The mood of the American consumer USCONC=ECI surprised U.S. economists by growing dimmer this month, according to the Conference Board (CB).

The topline figure fell 4.9% to 104.1 from December's 109.5, falling short of the reading of 105.6 projected by economists.

Survey respondents' assessment of their present situation plunged 6.7%, while near term expectations deteriorated by 3.0%.

"Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row," writes Dana M. Peterson, CB's chief economist.

"Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income," Peterson adds. "The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January."

Here's a breakdown of the survey participants' labor market views:

Separately, new orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods USDGN=ECI unexpectedly slid 2.2% last month in defiance of the 0.6% increase analysts expected.

Adding insult to injury, the decline follows on the heels of November's downwardly revised 2.0% drop.

A drill-down into the Commerce Department's report, which includes everything from toasters to attack drones, reveals a whopping 45.7% drop in commercial aircraft weighed heavily on the headline; excluding transportation items, new orders actually eked out a 0.3% gain.

On the bright side, new orders for core capital goods - which excludes aircraft and defense, and is considered a barometer of U.S. corporate capex plans - rose by 0.5%, beating the 0.3% consensus in a healthy follow-up to the prior month's upwardly revised 0.9% gain.

Still, the upturn looks fragile to Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"Some measures of investment intentions have turned up recently," Allen says. "But nothing is yet definitive, and long-term interest rates are still too high for a strong recovery."

Pivoting to the housing market, U.S. home price growth added some heat in November.

The Case-Shiller 20-city composite USSHPQ=ECI showed home prices grew by on monthly and annual bases by 0.4% and 4.3%, respectively.

The monthly print was a repeat of October, while the year-on-year number was 10 basis points warmer.

The increase feels somewhat counterintuitive; mortgage rates have been bobbing along the 7% level, crimping affordability and - one would assume - demand.

"Modest increases in the supply of homes for sale and elevated mortgage rates will contribute to some downward pressure on prices (this year), but solid demand due to a strong economy and healthy labor market should prevent a sharp deceleration in price growth," writes Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Of the 20 towns in the composite, home prices in New York and Chicago increased the most, by 7.3% and 6.2%, respectively. Tampa was the only city in the group to show a year-on-year decline, with home prices dipping 0.4%.

(Stephen Culp)

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