Shoe Carnival Q4 sales slightly beat estimates

Overview

• U.S. footwear retailer's Q4 sales slightly beat analyst expectations

• Fiscal 2025 net sales fell 5.6%, with Shoe Station banner sales up 2.7% organically

• In March 2026, Board approved a raise in quarterly dividend to $0.17 per share, marking 12th consecutive annual increase

Outlook

• Shoe Carnival sees fiscal 2026 net sales about flat, ranging from down 1% to up 1%

• Company expects fiscal 2026 gross profit margin of about 34%, down 260 basis points from 2025

• Shoe Carnival expects fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.60

Result Drivers

• LOWER-INCOME PRESSURE - Co said Shoe Carnival banner sales declined due to continued pressure on lower-income consumers and reduced promotional marketing

• REBANNER INVESTMENTS - Co said rebanner investments reduced Q4 EPS by about $0.08, mainly impacting selling, general and administrative expenses

• MERCHANDISE MARGIN EXPANSION - Co said merchandise margin expanded 30 basis points in Q4, offset by higher buying, distribution, and occupancy costs

Company press release: ID:nBwbN3gjda

Key Details

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 1 "strong buy" or "buy", 2 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the apparel & accessories retailers peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Shoe Carnival Inc is $23.00, about 28.7% above its March 25 closing price of $17.87

• The stock recently traded at 12 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 10 three months ago

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