US-Iran Negotiation Expectations Uncertain, Asia-Pacific Stocks Under Pressure, Safe-Haven Asset Volatility Intensifies

TradingKey - As expectations for US-Iran ceasefire negotiations continue to fluctuate, market risk appetite has receded once more. Asian equities broadly opened lower and trended down on Thursday, with the KOSPI falling more than 3%, while the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX also closed slightly lower. The Hang Seng Index, safe-haven assets, and commodity prices all experienced sharp volatility in tandem.

Commodity performance was mixed. Supported by expectations of potential supply disruptions, international oil prices extended their rebound, with WTI crude futures climbing over 3%. In the precious metals space, spot gold shed 1% and spot silver fell 2.3%, once again dropping below the $70 mark.

On the news front, Iran signaled a more hawkish stance. Iran's Foreign Minister stated clearly that although the U.S. has conveyed proposals to end the conflict via third-party nations, Iran currently has no intention of engaging in direct talks with the U.S. Such comments suggest that the likelihood of a swift diplomatic de-escalation remains limited in the near term.

Meanwhile, the U.S. side offered relatively optimistic timeline expectations. According to several media outlets citing sources, Trump recently indicated in private settings that he hopes to conclude military operations against Iran within the next four to six weeks and believes the current conflict is nearing its end.

The stark discrepancy between these "timeline expectations" and Iran's stance has intensified market uncertainty regarding the trajectory of the situation.

Market analysts believe the Middle East situation may be entering a "fighting while talking" phase, where military action and diplomatic maneuvering advance concurrently. At this stage, parties often seek to gain leverage by ramping up military pressure, which could instead fuel short-term market volatility.

Should the conflict escalate further, there remains upside potential for oil prices and safe-haven assets, while global risk assets are likely to remain under pressure.

Broadly speaking, with negotiation prospects remaining murky, geopolitical factors have resurfaced as a key variable driving cross-asset price volatility. The market is expected to maintain a high-volatility pattern in the short term.