BREAKINGVIEWS-How allies could respond to Trump’s Hormuz threat

By Hugo Dixon

TINOS, Greece, March 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Donald Trump has given Europe an impossible choice. The U.S. president says NATO faces a “very bad future” if allies don’t help open the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil normally flows.

European countries do not want to join a war against Iran that experts say contravenes international law. But they also do not want the United States to abandon the transatlantic alliance when Russia is threatening their security. Japan and South Korea are in a similar position. They depend on U.S. military support to protect themselves against China.

There is a possible way out of this bind. though. American allies in Europe and East Asia could say they will help ensure safe passage for tankers through the Gulf, but only after the United States and Israel stop their campaign. That would protect the interests of countries dependent on imported oil and gas while managing the risks.

Allies could simply decide not to get involved, arguing that Trump started the war and has no option but to reopen the Strait before U.S. voters feel the squeeze from rising petrol prices.

But European and Asian countries would be unwise to bet on Trump forcing the Strait open. The United States is a net exporter of petroleum products and therefore benefits from higher oil prices. Trump could cushion the blow on U.S. motorists with subsidies or lower fuel taxes, funded by a levy on energy companies’ windfall profits. The president has even cast doubt on U.S. involvement in the Middle East by pointing to domestic oil resources.

European and East Asian countries are more exposed to high oil prices. They have a strong interest in restoring the flow of tankers through the Strait. The Europeans have an extra reason to end the war fast, as the high oil price is benefitting Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter of the black stuff.

It therefore could make sense for a coalition of oil importers to form a task force with energy exporters in the Gulf to restore shipping traffic. French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested something similar. The key conditions would be an end to American and Israeli attacks on Iran, and no U.S. involvement. The Arab Gulf countries, which are losing billions of dollars a day because they cannot export their oil and gas, could contribute financially and militarily.

Reopening the Strait is “not a simple task”, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday. Iran has drones, mines and other weapons that could make such an operation dangerous. On the other hand, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep the waterway shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. If those countries stopped bombing Iran, it might not attack a task force of unconnected nations that was trying to keep the Strait open. Such a proposal could even give Trump a way to declare victory and end the war.

Trump might well reject the offer or be unable to persuade Israel to stop fighting. But the proposal is still worth making. It would show that European and East Asian countries are willing to defend their interests — while sticking to international law.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Several U.S. allies said on March 17 they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by President Donald Trump for military support to keep the ​vital waterway open.

Trump has called on nations to help police the Strait after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks by using drones, missiles and mines to ‌effectively close the channel for tankers that normally transport a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

Germany, Spain and Italy were among allies that ruled out participating in any mission in the Gulf, at least for now. Britain and Denmark said they would consider ways they might help but emphasised the need to de-escalate and avoid getting dragged into the war.