CORRECTED-One Group Q4 revenue falls on New Year’s Eve timing shift
Overview
U.S. restaurant operator's fiscal Q4 revenue fell 6.7%, impacted by New Year's Eve timing shift
Adjusted EBITDA for FY missed analyst expectations
Company closed underperforming Grill locations and advanced asset-light expansion strategy
Outlook
ONE Group sees Q1 2026 revenue between $217 mln and $221 mln
Company expects 2026 revenue between $840 mln and $855 mln
ONE Group targets 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $100 mln to $110 mln
Result Drivers
NEW YEAR'S EVE TIMING - Co said Q4 revenue decline was partly due to New Year's Eve shifting out of the quarter, impacting revenue by about 2.5%
COST MANAGEMENT - Co said disciplined cost management drove restaurant margin improvement in Q4
PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION - Co closed underperforming Grill locations and began converting units to higher-performing concepts to improve profitability
Company press release: ID:nBw3NNM4la
Key Details
Metric | Beat/Miss | Actual | Consensus Estimate |
FY Net Income attributable to The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. |
| -$92 mln |
|
FY Adjusted EBITDA attributable to the company | Miss | $88.9 mln | $91.48 mln (5 Analysts) |
FY comparable sales Growth |
| -3.7% |
|
Analyst Coverage
The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 4 "strong buy" or "buy", 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"
The average consensus recommendation for the restaurants & bars peer group is "buy"
Wall Street's median 12-month price target for One Group Hospitality Inc is $5.00, about 179.3% above its March 12 closing price of $1.79
The stock recently traded at 7 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 5 three months ago
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