BREAKINGVIEWS-New Delhi has weak hand in bank deal frenzy

By Shritama Bose

MUMBAI, March 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A dealmaking boom in India's banking sector has an unlikely loser: the government. Canadian insurance holding firm Fairfax Financial FFH.TO leads the race to buy a 61% stake from Indian state entities in $13 billion IDBI Bank IDBI.NS, Bloomberg reported in February, citing sources. An $8 billion transaction would be the largest-ever foreign direct investment in a local bank. But crystallising a premium valuation looks challenging.

A deal would complete a full circle for the lender hardest hit by an asset quality crisis: in 2018, bad loans comprised nearly one-third of its portfolio. Provisions for that sour pool eroded its capital base and prompted New Delhi, which then owned 86% of IDBI, to press state-backed Life Insurance Corporation LIFI.NS to pump in 216 billion rupees, or $2.4 billion at current rates, to raise its 8% stake to 51% in 2019.

LIC now holds 49% of IDBI's shares and the government owns 45%. Selling a 30% stake to Fairfax at the latest market price would fetch the insurer a 136% return on its 2019 investment. New Delhi would be worse off, though: the lender's shares trade lower than they did 13 years ago.

Yet even current multiples may be difficult to fetch. IDBI's shares are trading at about 2 times forward book value, almost twice that of similar-sized rivals Yes Bank YESB.NS and IDFC First Bank IDFB.NS. Throwing in employee liabilities, restructuring costs and the likely absence of indemnity clauses gives the buyer a strong case for a discount.

An abundance of takeover targets has hurt New Delhi, too. Launched in 2022, the slow-moving sale process of IDBI prompted early potential bidders to look elsewhere: last year Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation 8316.T bought a 24% stake in Yes Bank.

With Emirates NBD ENBD.DU still in the reckoning with Fairfax, it's a two-horse race to own IDBI. Both bidders already have a foothold in India's credit market: the Dubai-headquartered lender is set to take control of the $2 billion RBL Bank RATB.NS and Fairfax owns $675 million CSB Bank CSBB.NS.

That chips away at any shred of bargaining power left with the sellers, who can hardly demand a control premium. Regulations cap voting rights of private bank shareholders at 26%. That puts the new owner effectively at par on voting decisions with LIC and the government, which will hold a combined 34% after the sale. To maximise takings, officials could ask the central bank to relax the voting rule. The other option is to reduce their total stake to well below 26%.

Otherwise, New Delhi risks catching the weak end of India's banking M&A wave.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Fairfax Financial Holdings is the frontrunner to buy a majority stake in IDBI Bank, Bloomberg reported on February 27, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

Valuing the 61% stake that the government and the Life Insurance Corporation of India hold in IDBI at the current market price of about $8 billion could make it the biggest foreign direct investment in the country's banking sector, the report added.