ConocoPhillips Q4 adjusted EPS misses estimatesb as prices drop

Overview

• Global exploration firm's Q4 adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations

• Adjusted net income for Q4 missed analyst estimates

• Company declared Q1 2026 dividend of $0.84 per share

Outlook

• ConocoPhillips expects 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $12 bln

• Company forecasts 2026 production at 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED

• ConocoPhillips plans to return 45% of CFO to shareholders in 2026

Result Drivers

• LOWER PRICES - Earnings and adjusted earnings decreased from Q4 2024 primarily due to the impact of lower prices, despite higher volumes

• MARATHON OIL INTEGRATION - Successfully integrated Marathon Oil, doubling synergy capture to more than $1 billion on a run-rate basis in 2025

• EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS - Achieved Lower 48 drilling and completion efficiency improvements of more than 15% year over year

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 23 "strong buy" or "buy", 6 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the oil & gas exploration and production peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for ConocoPhillips is $115.00, about 6.9% above its February 4 closing price of $107.59

• The stock recently traded at 20 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 14 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nBw6fXXN7a

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