Match Group Q4 revenue up 2%, slightly beats estimates

Overview

• Dating platform's Q4 revenue slightly beat analyst expectations, rising 2% yr/yr

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 increased 14% yr/yr,

• Company declared a 5% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.20 per share

Outlook

• Match Group expects Q1 2026 revenue of $850 to $860 mln, up 2% to 3% Y/Y

• Company forecasts 2026 revenue of $3,410 to $3,535 mln, approximately flat Y/Y

• Match Group anticipates 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1,280 to $1,325 mln

Result Drivers

• HINGE GROWTH - Hinge reported a 26% increase in direct revenue and nearly 50% growth in MAU in European markets for FY25

• TINDER IMPROVEMENTS - Tinder's Sparks Coverage metric increased 4% Y/Y in December, indicating improved engagement

• PRODUCT INITIATIVES - Match Group's product-led transformation focused on user outcomes, improving engagement and scaling experimentation

Key Details

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 7 "strong buy" or "buy", 14 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the online services peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Match Group Inc is $37.00, about 17.3% above its February 2 closing price of $31.54

• The stock recently traded at 12 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 12 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nPn6DpRZka

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