Tractor Supply Q4 sales miss estimates as discretionary demand softens

Overview

• Rural lifestyle retailer's Q4 net sales rose 3.3% but missed analyst expectations

• Q4 diluted EPS was $0.43, in line with previous year

• Company opened 31 new Tractor Supply stores and one new Petsense store in Q4

Outlook

• Tractor Supply expects fiscal 2026 net sales growth of 4% to 6%

• Company projects fiscal 2026 diluted EPS of $2.13 to $2.23

• Tractor Supply plans to open approximately 100 new stores in 2026

Result Drivers

• CONSUMER SPENDING SHIFT - Essential categories remained strong while discretionary demand moderated, affecting Q4 results, per CEO Hal Lawton

• NEW STORE OPENINGS - Sales growth driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth

• SG&A EXPENSES - Increase in SG&A expenses as a percent of net sales due to planned investments and fixed cost deleverage

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 17 "strong buy" or "buy", 15 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the miscellaneous specialty retailers peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Tractor Supply Co is $60.00, about 8.8% above its January 28 closing price of $55.14

• The stock recently traded at 24 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 25 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nBw366Rc2a

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