CatIQ reduces insured loss estimate for July 2024 Ontario flash flooding to C$899 million

By Navneeta Nandan

July 16 - (The Insurer) - Perils-owned CatIQ has estimated the one-year industry loss caused by the flash flooding on July 15 and 16, 2024, in southern Ontario to be C$899 million ($656.27 million).

This is the fifth estimate of the event issued by CatIQ and represents a C$92 million fall from the C$991 million prediction announced on January 17.

The Toronto-based catastrophe insurance data provider said that over 85% of the total claims and over 75% of the total loss are attributed to personal property-related loss.

Caroline Floyd, director of CatIQ said, "The one-year data shows a modest decrease in the number of personal claims but a noticeable drop in the incurred costs, along with a corresponding decrease of about 9% in the average personal claim size. That suggests that, in addition to companies releasing reserve amounts, some claims may have been feeling the effects of policy and coverage limits as they’ve been resolved.

"With about 90% of total claims reporting as closed as of the one-year mark, it will be interesting to see if those yet-outstanding claims follow the same trend by the final loss estimate issued next year.”

A sixth and final update of the market loss will be done two years after the event end date, on July 16, 2026.

A two-day heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in southern Ontario, including Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area. The rainfall exceeded 120 mm in some places, including Toronto Pearson Airport where it was 123 mm.

"The excessive rainfall was driven by a stationary boundary stretching from northern Quebec through the Upper Great Lakes and down to Colorado (USA). The prevailing flow at the surface was out of the southern USA, streaming moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward," the risk modeler added.