Precise flood modeling, clear communication vital to reducing losses, says Previsico CEO

By Mia MacGregor

July 9 - (The Insurer) - Improved communication and more precise flood modeling are critical to mitigating losses caused by disasters like the recent Texas floods, which claimed more than 100 lives, according to Jonathan Jackson, CEO of UK-based flood forecasting startup Previsico.

“There’s no point having an early warning system unless you educate people on what to do when they receive the warning. It’s the combination of the two,” Jackson told The Insurer.

“Early warnings, coupled with clear guidance on actions to take, can save lives and certainly mitigate losses.”

The catastrophic flooding over the July 4 weekend caused an estimated $18 billion to $22 billion in damages and economic losses, according to Accuweather.

In a statement to The Insurer, the National Weather Service (NWS) said it issued Flash Flood Warnings on the night of July 3 and early morning of July 4, providing lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met. The agency also deployed additional staff in its Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo offices during the event.

Despite these preparations, Jackson said the current system has limitations, particularly when it comes to public response to warnings.

“It’s all about communication,” he said. “If warnings are issued frequently and cover large areas, people become desensitized and may just ignore them, especially if previous warnings didn’t affect them.”

Jackson also noted that traditional flood forecasting often lacks geographic specificity and fails to account for critical local factors.

“The accuracy of the forecast is key to it all,” he said. “The NWS issues broad weather warnings because it’s trying to predict where rain may fall across a very wide area. The system isn’t designed to be saying it's going to rain on Main Street, but not on Fifth Avenue."

The Texas floods illustrated how quickly torrential rainfall can overwhelm communities.

“The sheer volume of rainfall is greater than the ground’s ability to absorb it,” Jackson said. “The local topography meant that runoff quickly flowed into rivers like the Guadalupe, compounding the impact.”

Jackson emphasized that modern flood modeling can provide more targeted warnings.

“The value of advanced flood warnings is in their specificity,” he said. “By processing the same weather data used by the NWS through detailed models, we can identify precise flood pathways and determine which properties are most at risk.”

Founded in 2019 as a spinout from Loughborough University, Previsico provides advanced flood forecasting solutions to municipalities, utility companies such as National Grid and corporations including Burger King.

Jackson warned these extreme events are becoming the new normal.

“Events like Texas are happening on an increasingly frequent basis. These are happening with increasing regularity, and that's the big challenge that people around the world are facing now," he said.

"We've been saying these are exceptional. They're increasingly not going to be exceptional. They're going to start to become more and more rapid.”