Lockton: LA protest losses could ‘complicate the property outlook’ for US insurers

By Michael Loney

June 26 - (The Insurer) - Property insurers remain concerned about the broader landscape of natural catastrophe losses while potential losses from the Los Angeles protests could also complicate the outlook for the rest of the year, Lockton said.

In the latest edition of the Lockton Market Update, the U.S. independent broker said most property insurance buyers are benefiting from strong competition and ample capacity as the market continues to soften.

Conditions continue to favour property insurers, with reinsurers generally satisfied with attachment points and pricing following adjustments.

“Although the southern California wildfires generated notable insured losses — an estimated $38 billion, according to Fitch Ratings — these are expected to impact personal lines more than commercial property,” the report said.

“Still, insurers and reinsurers remain concerned about the broader landscape of natural catastrophe losses.”

Lockton added that insurers will be closely monitoring the 2025 hurricane season, and also watching inflation trends as rising costs could once again drive up the cost of raw materials that are essential to rebuilding efforts post-claim.

“Potential losses from the June Los Angeles protests could also complicate the property outlook for the remainder of the year,” the report added.

Lockton’s data shows that median property rates fell 1.3% in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 1.1% increase in Q4 2024 and a 5.2% increase a year ago in Q1 2024.

Lockton expects rate change of flat to -15% in the next quarter for non-cat-exposed business and -5% to -20% for cat exposed/challenged occupancies.

“Buoyed in part by stable conditions in the reinsurance marketplace, commercial property insurers continue to defend existing business and aggressively compete for new business,” the report said. “Buyers are seeing expanded capacity and more favourable terms and conditions.”