Trump’s Tariff War Backfires — Inflation Fears and Job Losses Drag Down Public Approval

TradingKey – The economic cost of former President Donald Trump’s trade war with China is becoming increasingly evident. In May, container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles , America’s busiest port, fell 5% year-on-year , with imports dropping 9% and exports hitting their lowest monthly level in over two years.

The impact has been severe on local workers — nearly half of dockworkers are now idle due to reduced cargo volume, sending shockwaves through surrounding communities that rely heavily on port-related jobs.

Although a 90-day tariff truce was reached in mid-May — reducing some tariffs from 145% to 30% — analysts believe any rebound will be limited. The lingering high tariffs continue to weigh heavily on business costs and supply chains.

Experts from Yale University warn that these tariffs could push average consumer prices up by 1.5% , costing the average American household nearly $2,500 annually in lost purchasing power — with low-income families bearing the brunt of the burden.

Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of Los Angeles, warned that without a comprehensive trade deal, consumers may face "higher prices and fewer choices" during the crucial holiday shopping season, further intensifying inflationary pressures and labor market instability.

Tariff-driven supply chain disruptions risk pushing up prices for essential goods, contributing to structural inflation , while export-dependent sectors like manufacturing and logistics face rising job loss risks. Local unemployment rates could rise sharply in affected regions.

These growing pains are clearly affecting public sentiment. According to a recent NBC News poll , a majority of Americans still disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with his net approval rating remaining firmly in negative territory as he seeks a second term.

【Public Sentiment Toward Trump by Party Affiliation, Source: NBC News】

If U.S.-China trade negotiations fail to deliver meaningful progress, the dual pressure of inflation and employment challenges could pose significant risks — both for Federal Reserve policy and Trump’s re-election prospects.