Riskworld 2025: Insurance leaders strike confident tone despite heightened uncertainty

By Michael Loney

May 7 - (The Insurer) - Risk managers and insurance leaders gathered in Chicago this week for RIMS’ Riskworld 2025 conference amid a heightened geopolitical backdrop but executives remained confident about the U.S. commercial insurance market.

The Insurer’s interviews with executives at the Riskworld conference suggested positivity about market conditions despite greater uncertainty, rates in some areas such as property, cyber and D&O coming down, and dislocation in excess casualty.

Common themes in recent Riskworld meetings have been elevated natural catastrophe losses in the property market and social inflation driving casualty losses and rate increases.

These two themes remained top of mind at this year’s Riskworld meeting in Chicago but were joined by the geopolitical environment, including the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Donna Nadeau, head of large commercial at Axa XL, said: “This is a business where we deal with uncertainty and this is a business where we deal with volatility, but we are in what I would consider particularly volatile times.”

Nadeau pointed to issues including supply chain disruption, the impacts of tariffs, inflation, interest rates, climate change, nuclear verdicts, AI and cyber.

“All of these things are hot right now from my perspective,” she said.

However, Nadeau added: “Despite all of these volatilities, I think we're still feeling pretty good about the business. We have ambitious plans in our Americas regions.”

Marc Orloff, president of Global Risk Solutions North America at Liberty Mutual, said that “it is probably the most complex, dynamic risk environment we've ever faced”.

“We typically say going into the year, could this year be any more complex than last year? We started off with California wildfires to start the year. We've seen some fairly significant changes to the property market happen pretty quickly and then you bring some of the macro environment and overlay in that in, and it's a challenging time for sure,” he said.

But he too is optimistic about the market.

“The thing about being in the risk business is risk is plentiful, and it's why we're here. So I feel good about it because I feel like there's a need for what we do. But the business is about as challenging as it’s ever been,” he said.

Orloff noted that Liberty Mutual’s GRS business is growing across the board in North America.

Adrien Robinson, head of global specialty at The Hartford, suggested that it is more of a stabilized insurance market now than two years ago.

“People call it a nuanced market,” he said. “The vast majority of the specialty lines are where you're getting a small rate increase or decrease and generally rates are staying on top of loss cost trend.”

Robinson said that exceptions to this include the larger, more cat-exposed property business, which is more competitive. In contrast, the U.S. casualty market also has a lot of dislocation following losses ramping up following a slowdown amid court closures during the pandemic.

“Despite all that, I think this is a great market where folks who are healthy and have the right tools in place and the right team can really make a difference and really perform well. I think if you're in good shape, you can outperform in a market that we’re in,” Robinson said.

EXCESS CASUALTY MARKET CONSTRAINED

Willis in its Insurance Marketplace Realities report released just before the Riskworld event started highlighted the ample and growing capacity in the U.S. commercial insurance market.

In the report Jon Drummond, head of broking North America at Willis, said that buyers are finding more negotiating power and flexibility in today’s market.

“Capacity is operating at a surplus in most lines of insurance, with one notable exception: excess casualty. However, even in this historically constrained segment, we are seeing a meaningful shift,” he said in the report.

This was echoed by executives at the Riskworld event, where excess casualty was a big theme.

Several executives The Insurer spoke to were intrigued by the U.S. excess casualty facility announced last week by Chubb, Zurich North America and National Indemnity.

In a statement commenting on the facility launch, Zurich North America CEO Kristof Terryn highlighted that businesses were facing decreases in available capacity, as well as rising coverage costs.

"This facility creates a sustainable answer to the litigation environment, whose volatility has continued to frustrate our customers, while helping to stabilize capacity in the excess casualty market,” he said.

Speaking to The Insurer at Riskworld, executive vice president of analytics at CAC Group Nate Baseman, also said that excess casualty is seeing some increased capacity.

“I think the rate levels are now in a position where people feel a little bit more comfortable and feel like they have their arms around it a little bit more,” he said. “Maybe it's early signs that some of these excess markets want to start to get on risk with the hope that some of the tort reform can limit that (legal system abuse) and maybe that's an attractive area to start to play in and grow some premium.”

Baseman said the commercial insurance market overall remains “pretty profitable and well positioned, even given some of the headwinds that are facing it”.