Hub: US rates up 2% to 7% for commercial middle-market insurance in Q1

By Michael Loney

April 11 - (The Insurer) - Greater insurer competition is helping to stabilise rates in the U.S. commercial middle market, particularly for property insurance, Hub has said.

The broker said in a new report said that rates in the quarter were up between 2% and 7% on average for commercial insurance in the U.S. middle market, but varied depending on line of business, geography and loss experience.

“While lines such as property are experiencing stability and increased competition among insurers, risk factors such as loss experience and location will impact rates. Rates remain under pressure for auto and excess/umbrella, while workers' comp continues to decline,” the report said.

Specific perils will face additional scrutiny, particularly coverage for wildfires and severe convective storms.

Hub said that capacity has improved in some segments of the U.S. market, but insurers remain selective, prioritising businesses with robust risk management and clean loss histories.

In addition, high-exposure industries, such as construction and transportation, face more restrictive underwriting.

Hub’s guidance includes rate movements of down 10% to up 10% for commercial property, down 20% to up 5% for residential/habitational property, and down 15% to up 5% for catastrophic perils.

The broker said large shared and layered commercial property programs have greater rate relief than single-carrier large middle-market programs because of more available capacity.

Residential and habitational property coverage is driven by shared and layered programs, where there is strong competition for business, which has enabled insureds to obtain rate decreases.

The report also said that any significant legislative or regulatory changes, such as tariffs, could drive up replacement and rebuilding costs in many areas, “which would impact property valuations and contribute to further property insurance rate fluctuations”.

Most umbrella and excess tower rates are increasing moderately, Hub said.

“More umbrella carriers are requiring $2 million per occurrence in primary GL limits and $4 million aggregate limits or higher for upper middle market and larger insureds,” the report said.

Some coverages that saw sharp increases in previous years such as select property risks, cyber and professional liability are stabilising, with flat to modestly lower renewal rates for well-managed risks.

Hub said that cyber rate increases are rare and are reserved for certain risk profiles or those with loss activity.

It also highlighted signs the public D&O market is firming, but added “plenty of capacity is still available, resulting in flat pricing and decreases for certain risk profiles”.

Hub said that the insurance market overall remains “highly fluid”, with further changes in pricing and coverage availability expected in the months ahead.

“Favourable reinsurance pricing is giving carriers more flexibility in underwriting. However, April and July reinsurance renewals will be pivotal in shaping market conditions for the rest of 2025,” the report said.