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Euro area yields jump, markets scale back ECB rate cut bets as Trump pauses tariffs

ReutersApr 10, 2025 6:40 AM

By Stefano Rebaudo

- Euro zone government bond yields jumped, spreads tightened, and markets scaled back their bets on European Central Bank rate cuts after the U.S. administration said it would temporarily lower U.S. tariffs to bring countries to the bargaining table.

U.S. President Donald Trump's move eased concerns about a sharp slowdown of the global economy and a recession in the United States.

Germany's 10-year yield DE10YT=RR, the euro area's benchmark, rose 9.5 bps to 2.53%, having fallen 5 bps the day before. It reached 2.487% on Friday, its lowest since March 4.

Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate at 1.82% in December, up from 1.65% on Wednesday and 1.9% last week shortly before Trump announced U.S. tariffs. They also discounted an around 90% chance of rate cut in April from fully pricing it the day before.

The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year bond yields DE10IT10=RR dropped to 116 bps from around 130 bps the day before, as Italian bonds outperformed their German counterparts, which had been major beneficiaries of the investor push out of U.S. assets in the past few days.

"The risks remain huge," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg mentioning the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China and the uncertainty surrounding negotiations with other countries.

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