Delos: ​​Traditional wildfire models struggle to keep pace with escalating fire risks

By Mia MacGregor

Feb 18 - (The Insurer) - The recent LA wildfires highlight a growing trend of increasingly volatile fire behaviour driven by shifting climate conditions, altered precipitation patterns and extended fire seasons, making it difficult for traditional models to accurately assess these risks, according to wildfire MGA Delos Insurance Solutions.

The MGA reported that fire seasons now peak later in the year, with El Niño–Southern Oscillation shifts bringing heavy rains that fuel rapid vegetation growth, followed by extreme dryness and high winds.

As a result, Delos said that traditional wildfire models struggle to accurately assess these evolving risks.

Despite covering 25,000 policies across California, including wildfire-prone areas, Delos reported that it had recorded zero fire losses during the Palisades and Eaton Fires.

Delos’s wildfire model integrates high-resolution data on fuel, wind, climate, and fire behaviour with hundreds of additional data layers.

Using machine learning, it assesses wildfire risk independently of historical events, preventing surprises from extreme events like the Palisades and Eaton Fires, according to the company.

Delos said that this approach allows it to insure properties traditional models deem high-risk while identifying actual fire-prone areas.

Since 2017, Delos reported that its model has accurately predicted nearly every major California wildfire.

“As climate change and environmental shifts continue to impact fire behavior, traditional models struggle to keep pace with emerging risks,” the company stated.

“The Palisades and Eaton Fires serve as a stark reminder of the evolving wildfire risks in Southern California and the need for innovative solutions in wildfire risk mitigation.”