US Dollar Index: Breakout fuelled by hawkish Fed repricing – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that the Dollar is in breakout territory after DXY moved above 101.00, supported by a hawkish shift in Fed expectations. The FOMC’s higher dot plot and firm inflation projections have driven a bear‑flattening in Treasuries and delivered the biggest Dollar gain in three months, with SOFR futures now pricing a 25 bp hike by October.

Fed dots drive renewed Dollar strength

"Dollar in breakout territory after DXY scales 101.00."

"The upward adjustment of the dots – 9/18 members are pencilling in higher rates this year, 6 are forecasting two or more hikes - sparked the violent bear flattening sell off and the biggest gain for the dollar in three months."

"The 2SD move lifted 2y UST yields to 4.20%. The 3SD slump deflated EUR/USD below 1.15 for the first time since April."

"Lower oil prices failed to shield importers incl the euro and the Yen as rate differentials swung the tide in favour of the dollar."

"SOFR futures price in +25bp by the Fed in October."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)