Mexico government sees up to 2.9% growth for 2027, draft budget shows

By Brendan O'Boyle and Sarah Morland

MEXICO CITY, April 1 (Reuters) - Mexico's government sees Latin America's No. 2 economy growing between 1.9% and 2.9% next year, a draft budget from the country's finance ministry showed on Wednesday, presenting a slightly rosier outlook than the central bank.

For this year, the ministry held its forecasts steady at 1.8% to 2.8%.

The Bank of Mexico predicted the economy will grow 1.6% this year and 2.0% in 2027 in its most recent quarterly report in late February, citing uncertainty around the ongoing review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade pact.

In a central bank poll published earlier on Wednesday, private sector analysts forecast growth of 1.5% this year and 1.8% in 2027.

Mexico should log a primary deficit of 4.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, the finance ministry added, falling to 3.5% of GDP in 2027. Mexico's fiscal deficit in 2025 was 4.3% of GDP, according to official data.

Headline inflation, meanwhile, is likely to end 2026 at 3.7% and is likely to be at the central bank's target of 3.0% at the end of next year, the finance ministry said. It predicted the central bank's policy interest rate would end 2026 at 6.3% and 2027 at 5.5%.

The OPEC+ nation said that the average price for its oil export mix was expected to hit $77.3 per barrel this year and fall to $54.7 per barrel in 2027. It expects to produce 1.79 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, increasing to 1.81 million bpd next year.

The finance ministry expects the peso MXN= to end 2026 at 18.4 per U.S. dollar, and weaken slightly to 18.6 next year.