Russian economy will grow by 1.1% in 2026, Reuters poll shows

MOSCOW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The Russian economy has grown by a median of 0.9% in 2025 and is forecast to grow only marginally faster, by 1.1%, next year, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts showed on Monday.

The poll showed that inflation will slow to 5.2% in 2026 from an estimated 5.8% in 2025 and will hit the central bank's target of 4% in 2027. In the previous poll, analysts saw inflation at 6.5% in 2025.

The Russian economy has slowed sharply from robust growth of 4.3% in 2024 as a result of the central bank's tight monetary policy to fight inflation and Western sanctions. The central bank started cutting its key rate in June.

"Last year ended on a negative note for the Russian economy. By the end of 2025, the economy had come as close as possible to stagnation," Alfa Wealth analysts wrote in a research note.

Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the government and the central bank to ensure that the economy returns to a balanced growth path after the slowdown while keeping inflation under control.

"With financial conditions likely to remain tight for an extended period, we now expect a recovery in activity only in the second half of 2026 and into 2027," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.

Despite an expected spike in prices at the start of the year due to a rise in the value-added tax, analysts expect the central bank to continue cutting its key rate, currently at 16%, bringing it down to 15% in the first quarter.

The rouble is expected to weaken to 96.7 per U.S. dollar from the current level of 78.3. The rouble strengthened by 45% against the dollar in 2025, helping the central bank fight inflation by making imported goods cheaper.