EUR/USD picks up within range with Eurozone manufacturing data on tap

FXStreetDec 1, 2025 8:25 AM

The Euro crawls higher and returns above 1.1600 against the US Dollar on Monday.
Eurozone and US manufacturing activity data will guide the EUR/USD on Monday.
The US Dollar remains on its back foot amid hopes of Fed interest rate cuts.

EUR/USD trades with moderate gains, changing hands at levels right above 1.1600 at the time of writing, with upside attempts capped below 1.1615 for now. A mild risk aversion prevails with investors awaiting a raft of key macroeconomic releases this week, starting with the Eurozone's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) later on Monday.

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive, with investors bracing for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next week. Beyond that, US President Donald Trump might announce the White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, as the central bank's next chairman, according to Reuters. Hasset is a vocal dove and is expected to bring Trump's agenda of a loose monetary policy.

Later on Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion in Stanford, California, yet the highlight of the day will be the November ISM Manufacturing PMI release, due at 15:00 GMT.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.06%	0.14%	-0.54%	0.03%	0.05%	0.10%	0.07%
EUR	0.06%		0.20%	-0.41%	0.09%	0.12%	0.16%	0.13%
GBP	-0.14%	-0.20%		-0.62%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.04%	-0.07%
JPY	0.54%	0.41%	0.62%		0.52%	0.53%	0.57%	0.55%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.09%	0.11%	-0.52%		0.02%	0.06%	0.04%
AUD	-0.05%	-0.12%	0.08%	-0.53%	-0.02%		0.04%	0.01%
NZD	-0.10%	-0.16%	0.04%	-0.57%	-0.06%	-0.04%		-0.03%
CHF	-0.07%	-0.13%	0.07%	-0.55%	-0.04%	-0.01%	0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Euro recovery picks up ahead of the Eurozone PMI release

In the European session, the main attraction will be the Eurozone's HCOB final Manufacturing PMI for November, which is expected to confirm that the sector's activity fell to a five-month low of 49.7, from 50.0 in October. Not particularly supportive data for the Euro.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to participate in a panel at the Hoover Institute in a memorial lecture about George P. Schulz and Economic Policy, although he is not expected to talk about monetary policy because the Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the December meeting
Later on, the focus will shift to November's US ISM PMI, which is expected to have eased to 48.6 from 48.7 in October. The Prices Paid sub-index is seen growing to 59.6 from 50.0 in October. The employment gauge is likely to be observed with particular interest.
The economic calendar is packed with data this week, with Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Tuesday, Services PMIs from Eurozone and the US on Wednesday, together with the ADP Employment Change report, and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index on Friday.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps hovering below the 1.1615 resistance

The EUR/USD is looking for direction, with price action fluctuating on both sides of the 1.1600 line. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory near the 60.0 level, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is crossing below the signal line, highlighting a fading bullish momentum.

Bulls remain capped below the top of a descending channel from early October highs, around 1.1615. A confirmation above this level would signal a trend shift and bring the 1.1660 - 1.1670 area (October 28, 29, November 13, 14 highs) into focus. Further up, the next target is the October 17 high, right below 1.1730.

Immediate support remains at 1.1550 (around November 21 and 24 highs). Further down, the 1.1500 psychological level might hold bears ahead of the November 5 lows, near 1.1470.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

Next release: Mon Dec 01, 2025 09:00

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 49.7

Previous: 49.7

Source: S&P Global

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