EUR/USD had a good rally during yesterday's European Central Bank press conference after President Christine Lagarde described the economy as resilient and a little better than expected, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
US-EU trade discussions are evolving smoothly
"With inflation on target at 2% and Lagarde frequently repeating the ECB was in a 'good place', investors naturally questioned whether the central bank really needed to take rates into accommodative territory later this year. Two-year EUR swap rates rose about 5bp in the afternoon and gave EUR/USD a 0.5% lift."
"EUR/USD could retest the 1.1830 high, although this story will help the euro across the board. Here we would pick out EUR/CHF, where a less dovish ECB will be music to the ears of the Swiss National Bank and could help EUR/CHF correct back to the 0.9400 area."
"All of the above is contingent on US-EU trade discussions evolving smoothly – with the auto sector, for instance, included in a potential 15% baseline tariff rate."
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