Brazil economists trim 2026 inflation forecast in boost for central bank
SAO PAULO, July 21 (Reuters) - Private economists polled weekly by Brazil's central bank trimmed their 2026 inflation outlook for the first time in over two months, according to a survey released on Monday, in a welcome development for the central bank.
Consumer prices in 2026 are now expected to rise 4.45%, down from 4.50% the previous week, a projection that had remained unchanged for nine straight weeks.
The central bank targets inflation at 3% with a tolerance range of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
Central bank officials have expressed concern that long-term inflation expectations may be becoming unanchored, despite the country's main interest rate standing at a restrictive 15%.
Economists' forecasts for inflation held steady at 4% for 2027 and dipped slightly to 3.80% from 3.81% for 2028, the survey showed.
Inflation projections for this year have been on a steady decline, supported by a stronger exchange rate. They continued that trend this week, easing to 5.10% from 5.17% previously.
Central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo said in a letter earlier this month that inflation is expected to return to within the tolerance band by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Estimates for Brazil's benchmark interest rate remained unchanged from the previous week, at 15% for 2025 and 12.5% for 2026.
The following is a set of projections from the survey:
Market estimates | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 |
Median | Now | Previous week | Now | Previous week |
IPCA inflation index (%) | 5.10 | 5.17 | 4.45 | 4.50 |
GDP growth (%) | 2.23 | 2.23 | 1.88 | 1.89 |
Brazilian real to U.S. dollar (year-end) | 5.65 | 5.65 | 5.70 | 5.70 |
Interest rate Selic (year-end, %) | 15.00 | 15.00 | 12.50 | 12.50 |
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