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EMERGING MARKETS-FX steady, stocks jump as markets shrug off Trump's tariffs

ReutersJul 10, 2025 9:35 AM
  • Trump targets Brazil with 50% tariffs, prompting retaliation
  • Polish central banker says September rate cut possible
  • MSCI EM FX down 0.1%, stocks up 0.4%

By Ragini Mathur and Purvi Agarwal

- Most emerging market stocks were higher on Thursday while currencies were mixed as investors weighed the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcement.

Trump targeted Brazil with threats of 50% tariffs on exports to the U.S. while simultaneously issuing tariff notices to seven smaller trading partners.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said any unilateral measure to increase tariffs would be met with a proportionate response.

The Brazilian real volatility gauges BRLSWO=FN spiked to the highest since late April when markets were still trying to get to grips with Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff threats.

The currency BRL= fell as much as 2.3% on Wednesday, following the news. The real was subdued in early trade on the day.

"50% tariffs for political reasons has been a bit of a shock for local markets, but I don't think this is going to trigger a major exodus from Brazilian assets," said Chris Turner, global head of financial market research at ING.

"Some factors which have driven strength in the real (higher interest rates, focus on local elections, carry trade) will still be present so it's a bit of a setback, but not disastrous for the real."

Trump also announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper earlier in the week, which he later clarified would be effective from August 1.

Countries are racing to strike deals with the Trump administration ahead of the revised August 1 deadline, while investors bet that his history of changing policy will create room for further negotiations.

Despite the heightened trade rhetoric, broader markets remained resilient, with MSCI's global emerging market currency gauge .MIEM00000CUS down only 0.1%.

Equity markets .MSCIEF gained 0.4%, with positive momentum from the U.S. spilling into global markets.

In emerging Europe, most currencies edged lower against the euro.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= declined the most among peers, down 0.1%. Monetary Policy Council member Henryk Wnorowski said the central bank may cut interest rates in September this year.

Regional stocks were broadly higher, with those in Poland .WIG20 and Romania .BETI up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, while Hungary's .BUX index slipped 0.2%.

In the Middle East, Turkey's lira TRYTOM=D3 was flat, while its stocks .XU100 jumped 1.8%. A report said another opposition member had been detained in the country, bringing local politics into focus.

The South African rand ZAR= gained 0.5%, while its stocks .JTOPI were 0.7% higher, around record highs.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is set to hold more meetings with U.S. officials at a conference dedicated to Ukraine's recovery.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** South Korea signals near-term rate cut, warns of 'significant' uncertainty from US tariffs

** Romania Q1 final GDP in line with preliminary estimate

** Long bets on most Asian currencies wane as Trump's tariffs ramp up

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
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