NZD/USD: Fundamental equilibrium is estimated at 0.6600 – BBH

FXStreetMar 3, 2025 11:20 AM

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NZD/USD is heavy near 0.5600, BBH FX analysts report.

A higher terms of trade raises the fundamental value of NZD

"New Zealand’s terms of trade index overshot expectations rising 3.1% q/q in Q4 (consensus: 1.4%) vs. 2.5% in Q3 to the highest level since Q2 2022. A higher terms of trade has a positive net wealth effect on the economy and raises the fundamental value of NZD."

"Nonetheless, NZD needs to keep trading at a deep discount to fundamental equilibrium (which we estimate at around 0.6600) to attract foreign investments and recycle the country’s large current account deficit (-6.4% of GDP)."

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