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US Treasury yields scale multi-year highs as inflation fears return
US Treasury yields edged up at the beginning of the week, with the 30- and 10-year yields reaching multi-year highs as inflation expectations rose, as shown in a US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey indicating that business activity in the services sector slowed while input prices surged.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Singapore Dollar: MAS seen very slightly tightening – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Edward Lee expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to deliver another very slight tightening in October, raising the SGD NEER slope to 1.5% from 1.25% while keeping the band parameters unchanged.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Chinese Yuan: Sideways with firmer bias against US Dollar - UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang reports USD/CNH slipped to 6.7008 before closing at 6.7041, with intraday price action expected to stay between 6.7000 and 6.7105. For the coming 1–3 weeks, he continues to see the pair confined to a 6.6950–6.7270 range.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Markets just priced out rate hikes on financial stress. This chart shows why 2022-23 says they’ll be wrong
Traders have taken about one quarter-point hike out of their European Central Bank (ECB) forecasts since mid-September, betting the ECB will stop raising rates because of a French debt selloff.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
United States: Domestic rare earth production push – ING
ING’s report by Coco Zhang and Ewa Manthey explains how the United States is enhancing domestic Rare earth production. Federal support now includes grants, loans, equity stakes, purchase agreements and price floors for key products like NdPr oxide and magnets.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Indonesian Rupiah: Limited relief, challenging backdrop – OCBC
Christopher Wong at OCBC expects the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) to see some near-term relief from softer United States (US) payrolls and a wider trade surplus, with policymakers emphasizing IDR stability.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Singapore Dollar: Range trade holds against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD slipped to 1.2781 on Friday, with the SGD NEER staying well above its midpoint. For the intraday session, he expects the pair to hold within 1.2768–1.2832, aligning with technical levels at 1.2775/1.2815. On a 1–3 week and 1–3 month horizon, he still sees scope for a recovery toward 1.2835 while 1.2765 acts as strong support.
USD/SGD
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
European Central Bank: Contagion risk reshapes rate expectations – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that unwanted tightening in Euro-zone financial conditions is prompting markets to pare back expectations for further ECB rate hikes.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Australian Dollar: Downside limited against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD closed at 0.6951 after a brief spike to 0.6976, with intraday price action expected to stay between 0.6930 and 0.6975.
AUD/USD
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Swiss Franc: Tight range expected against US Dollar - UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF reversed sharply from 0.8382 to close at 0.8286, with intraday price action expected to edge lower toward 0.8245 while staying above 0.8225.
USD/CHF
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
CEE FX: Hawkish holds and cautious easing path – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists expect a hawkish hold from Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) at 3.75% and no change from Romania’s central bank NBR at 6.50%, as inflation and political uncertainty constrain policy flexibility.
EUR/HUF
USD/CZK
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
ECB’s Nagel: No clear signs that inflation has fed through to price and wage setting
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech in Sorrento, Italy during the European trading session on Monday that the impact of energy shock-driven inflation has yet not fed into wage growth.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Euro: Fiscal risks cap upside against British Pound – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/GBP in light of divergent fiscal and political risks in Europe and the United Kingdom (UK).
EUR/GBP
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
ISM Services PMI expected to show robust US economy in September
On Monday, we’ll get the latest read on the US services sector when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes its September gauge. Consensus points to a marginal uptick to 55.7 from August’s 55.4.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
ECB’s Lane: Rise in long-term rates will slow growth
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warns of moderate economic growth due to higher long-term rates. Regarding inflation, Lane said that medium-term inflation expectations are still de-anchored.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Italy Public Deficit/GDP above forecasts (0%) in 2Q: Actual (2%)
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
CEE FX: Inflation supports koruna over peers – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects higher September inflation across Czech Republic and Hungary, with Czech data seen backing a November rate hike. He forecasts unchanged policy in Poland and Romania, maintains a bearish regional FX bias, and favours the Czech koruna, which he sees as less tied to global narratives and likely to outperform more dovish CEE currencies.
USD/CZK
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Indonesian Rupiah weakens as elevated import cost weigh on balance of payments
USD/IDR gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 17,950 during the early European hours on Monday.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Spain HCOB Services PMI registered at 58.3 above expectations (0) in September
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
Equities: Strong earnings cycle offsets yield shock – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that global equities ended last week only 0.5% lower despite a rapid rise in yields, with tech and cyclicals outperforming. Over the past two weeks, equities are up 0.4%, while volatility has been largely confined to bonds. The team argues strong earnings growth explains equities’ resilience versus the rates shock.
Fxstreet
Mon, Oct 5
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